NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	7.1 [387]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +93.6%
Dallas Mavericks	100		Comeback	276.8 [8]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): -30.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.17,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29	0.17	0.10	-0.02	16	78%	0.32	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.00	17	69%	0.20	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	16	64%	0.15	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.06
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	48%	0.03	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.3	-0.13	-0.17	-0.00	8	20%	-0.25	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.20

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.94	0.94	0.31	0.68	0.05	17	97%	1.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.01	0.01	8	85%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Mike James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.08	0.03	8	28%	-0.14	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.04	-0.00	13	14%	-0.17	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.6	26.3	16.8	29.0	1.8	38.0	140.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.8%

DAL +17.5%

CHI -7.4%

CHI -1.4%

CHI -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	17.8	14.8	15.4	112.6	111.1	104.1
season	16.6	14.5		101.7	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.8	17.5	17.8	18.0	17.8
DAL	16.5	16.0	13.0	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	42	45	0.61	-1.11	1.72	0.11	17	-19	36	16.8	18.7	-1.88	16.5	13.2	3.36
Kirk Hinrich	63	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.42	10	-12	22	17.5	18.5	-1.02	15.6	12.9	2.70
Carlos Boozer	65	69	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	1	-4	18.1	16.7	1.38	14.4	16.1	-1.71
Daequan Cook	14	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	3	-8	18.6	17.6	0.97	12.9	15.2	-2.36
Jimmy Butler	81	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	5	-12	17.9	15.7	2.25	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Luol Deng	76	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.51	-6	4	-10	17.7	18.4	-0.69	15.0	13.9	1.06
Taj Gibson	36	37	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.44	-9	7	-16	17.7	17.8	-0.06	14.2	15.3	-1.14
Nate Robinson	58	59	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.55	-7	5	-12	18.1	17.1	1.03	14.1	16.3	-2.22

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	60	60	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.49	14	-12	26	13.7	17.1	-3.40	17.3	18.7	-1.42
O.J. Mayo	77	77	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.51	7	-5	12	15.0	14.0	0.97	18.0	16.1	1.87
Shawn Marion	61	59	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.59	1	1	0	15.0	14.6	0.36	18.0	17.2	0.86
Mike James	58	54	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.53	-8	10	-18	15.8	13.1	2.70	17.5	18.1	-0.58
Dirk Nowitzki	64	61	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	6	-10	15.4	13.5	1.88	17.6	18.2	-0.56
Brandan Wright	42	43	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.17	10	-8	18	13.7	15.8	-2.14	18.0	17.5	0.48
Jae Crowder	19	17	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	5	-8	13.7	15.1	-1.39	18.5	17.6	0.88
Darren Collison	37	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.16	5	-3	8	13.6	15.7	-2.06	17.5	18.0	-0.47
Elton Brand	32	27	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.04	-12	14	-26	17.1	13.6	3.56	17.9	17.7	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.15,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.21,0.12,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, BKN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.02,1	91.1%
BKN 94, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.29,0.15,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.27,1	89.7%
PHI 100, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.33,0.09,1	89.7%