NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	8.6 [173]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +26.5%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	4.2 [578]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -41.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26	0.18	0.09	0.00	11	91%	0.33	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	9	48%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0.02	-0.06	0.06	-0.02	9	50%	0.14	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.08
Kosta Koufos	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.00	13	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.02	8	75%	0.05	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	10	37%	-0.09	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.42	-0.10	-0.32	-0.00	18	39%	-0.29	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.00	0.01	12	71%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	7	65%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.09	-0.00	9	50%	0.14	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.01	18	55%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	16	47%	0.01	5	-0.19	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.5	28.5	15.5	28.4	2.7	36.1	134.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.6%

SAS +1.1%

DEN -1.5%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	16.2	15.4	103.1	106.4	104.1
season	14.4	15.2		108.4	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.4		99.5	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	13.7	14.5	13.8	14.2
SAS	16.0	15.1	16.8	16.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	46	44	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.18	14	-15	29	13.5	14.8	-1.30	16.1	16.3	-0.17
Kenneth Faried	44	46	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-1	1	13.6	14.7	-1.09	16.2	16.2	0.03
Andre Miller	57	54	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.58	18	-19	37	13.5	15.1	-1.59	17.0	15.0	2.01
Wilson Chandler	68	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.46	9	-10	19	14.0	14.5	-0.43	16.1	16.4	-0.32
JaVale McGee	51	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.65	13	-14	27	13.4	15.0	-1.67	17.6	14.7	2.91
Kosta Koufos	40	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	16	-33	15.5	13.2	2.35	15.3	16.8	-1.45
Ty Lawson	39	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	18	-37	15.1	13.5	1.59	15.0	17.0	-2.01
Andre Iguodala	73	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	1	-3	14.6	12.7	1.86	15.9	17.1	-1.26
Danilo Gallinari	62	60	-1.01	0.51	-1.52	-0.39	-21	20	-41	14.5	13.6	0.83	16.1	16.3	-0.18

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	75	76	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.43	16	-15	31	15.8	17.6	-1.75	14.5	13.0	1.46
Tony Parker	70	71	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.39	11	-10	21	15.6	17.8	-2.16	14.4	13.6	0.81
Danny Green	65	65	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-7	15	16.0	16.7	-0.69	14.6	13.3	1.33
Tiago Splitter	52	53	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	-2	5	15.8	16.6	-0.84	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	-14	29	16.6	15.0	1.53	14.8	12.5	2.27
Manu Ginobili	52	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.38	-5	6	-11	15.7	16.8	-1.14	13.9	14.5	-0.55
Boris Diaw	35	38	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	10	-19	16.8	15.8	0.94	14.0	14.3	-0.30
Cory Joseph	24	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	11	-21	17.8	15.6	2.16	13.6	14.4	-0.81
DeJuan Blair	14	14	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.10	-11	12	-23	16.9	16.0	0.88	12.1	14.5	-2.44
Stephen Jackson	13	12	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	14	-27	18.3	15.8	2.47	11.7	14.5	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.58,0.44,0.47,0.6,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 92, NOH 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,1	91.1%
IND 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.52,0.42,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.92,1	91.0%
DAL 108, SAS 115	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.92,0.99,1,1	90.6%