NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	6.2 [558]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +34.8%
New Orleans Hornets	98		Comeback	5.5 [202]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): -13.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.10	0.01	17	64%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.00	10	70%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.01	11	56%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	16	41%	-0.03	2	-0.07	9	78%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	9	30%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.12	0.22	-0.01	20	70%	0.44	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.20	0.08	0.01	14	80%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	10	42%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
David West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	16	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	9	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	30.4	15.7	24.0	2.5	30.3	128.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +49.0%

DEN -5.0%

NOH +4.0%

NOH +2.3%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	14.2	17.4	15.3	101.1	107.7	106.0
season	14.4	15.5		110.3	106.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	14.3	15.5	14.0	14.2
NOH	17.0	18.4	15.1	19.4	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	47	46	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.06	12	-18	30	13.4	15.0	-1.62	18.6	16.3	2.32
Chris Andersen	38	37	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.20	12	-18	30	14.3	14.1	0.23	18.7	16.6	2.13
Arron Afflalo	54	57	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-10	14	14.2	14.2	-0.06	17.6	17.1	0.47
J.R. Smith	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.32	3	-9	12	14.3	14.0	0.31	18.6	15.8	2.83
Kenyon Martin	75	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.13	-14	8	-22	14.0	15.3	-1.34	16.9	20.3	-3.39
Nene	69	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	4	-14	14.4	13.6	0.75	17.4	17.6	-0.26
Carmelo Anthony	74	72	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.21	-19	13	-32	14.1	14.5	-0.39	16.4	21.3	-4.83
Anthony Carter	44	45	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.26	-18	12	-30	15.0	13.4	1.62	16.3	18.6	-2.32

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	78	80	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.35	18	-12	30	17.0	20.0	-2.99	14.4	12.8	1.58
Devin Brown	69	69	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.29	14	-8	22	17.1	18.4	-1.28	14.2	14.3	-0.14
Peja Stojakovic	67	68	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.26	14	-8	22	16.7	19.5	-2.74	14.0	14.9	-0.94
Emeka Okafor	56	58	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.03	22	-16	38	16.1	19.5	-3.42	14.5	13.7	0.76
David West	77	76	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	9	-12	17.7	16.1	1.62	14.0	15.1	-1.03
James Posey	44	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.28	-10	16	-26	18.9	16.1	2.80	14.2	14.2	-0.09
Marcus Thornton	16	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	8	-10	18.5	17.2	1.29	14.1	14.2	-0.09
Darius Songaila	35	35	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	17	-28	18.7	16.7	2.02	14.7	13.9	0.87
Darren Collison	13	11	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.03	-12	18	-30	20.0	17.0	2.99	12.8	14.4	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 83, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.91,1,1,1,1,1	92.6%
MEM 86, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	92.3%
IND 89, CHH 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.91,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,1	92.3%