NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	103		Excitement	9.0 [121]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +39.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	23.0 [29]		LVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): -17.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.39	0.00	0.39	-0.00	22	50%	0.42	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.03	-0.00	11	84%	0.22	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
John Jenkins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	15	66%	0.14	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Anthony Tolliver	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	19	37%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	10	30%	-0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.00	0.09	-0.03	8	50%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	6	65%	0.13	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.11	-0.00	9	64%	0.19	2	-0.23	7	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.10	-0.00	15	63%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.12	-0.01	11	46%	0.03	2	-0.17	2	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	15	47%	-0.07	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.2	23.6	15.7	23.2	2.3	32.4	125.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +57.3%

MIL -12.6%

MIL -45.5%

ATL +48.1%

ATL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.9	15.4	105.1	103.0	104.1
season	15.1	14.7		102.6	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.3	16.2	15.5	13.7	14.4
MIL	14.3	15.1	13.3	16.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	80	78	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.60	17	-16	33	14.2	14.9	-0.64	15.3	13.4	1.89
Al Horford	70	72	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.45	12	-11	23	15.0	12.8	2.16	16.1	11.6	4.50
Josh Smith	81	81	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.71	-7	8	-15	14.0	16.2	-2.19	14.6	16.0	-1.38
Kyle Korver	67	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.43	0	1	-1	13.9	15.3	-1.35	14.5	15.7	-1.16
Jeff Teague	71	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.54	-6	7	-13	14.8	13.2	1.63	15.3	13.6	1.70
Anthony Tolliver	24	23	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	2	-3	15.3	14.1	1.28	15.9	14.6	1.30
Dahntay Jones	13	12	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	10	-19	10.8	14.9	-4.06	11.8	15.3	-3.45
John Jenkins	39	42	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.32	2	-1	3	15.1	13.9	1.22	13.9	15.6	-1.67
Zaza Pachulia	45	44	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.20	-3	4	-7	14.1	14.6	-0.51	13.6	15.9	-2.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	34	34	0.51	-1.01	1.52	0.19	11	-12	23	13.4	15.6	-2.26	13.0	15.1	-2.09
Mike Dunleavy	43	44	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.24	4	-5	9	14.9	14.9	-0.01	14.1	14.6	-0.54
Samuel Dalembert	33	33	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.28	-1	0	-1	14.3	15.1	-0.80	14.6	14.3	0.31
Luc Mbah a Moute	30	28	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-2	3	15.1	14.8	0.28	15.0	14.1	0.84
Monta Ellis	90	90	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.51	5	-6	11	14.7	16.9	-2.22	14.1	17.2	-3.14
JJ Redick	74	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	2	-5	14.7	15.4	-0.76	13.9	15.7	-1.76
Ersan Ilyasova	56	56	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.70	-6	5	-11	15.4	14.1	1.33	14.8	13.8	0.98
Larry Sanders	74	73	-0.90	0.40	-1.29	-0.72	-6	5	-11	15.5	12.9	2.66	14.6	13.7	0.87
Brandon Jennings	61	59	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.68	-10	9	-19	15.1	14.5	0.56	15.3	13.0	2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.84,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 96, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.81,0.79,0.69,0.28,0	91.0%
SAC 89, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.74,0	90.0%
DEN 98, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	89.9%