NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	8.0 [223]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +24.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	94		Comeback	36.5 [26]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -32.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.25	0.07	0.17	-0.01	19	62%	0.34	4	-0.09	9	100%	0.10
Arron Afflalo	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	14	61%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.00	7	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	13	34%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.10	-0.06	0.03	21	45%	-0.04	5	-0.14	11	91%	0.05

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	60%	0.10	1	-0.07	6	67%	0.02
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.11	-0.00	21	58%	0.04	3	-0.06	15	93%	0.05
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	14	34%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.21,-0.32	-0.32	-0.07	-0.24	0.01	19	52%	0.00	7	-0.32	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.7	26.0	15.8	33.2	2.5	38.4	148.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.8%

DEN +5.9%

DEN +14.2%

OKC -1.0%

DEN +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.3	14.1	15.3	100.0	95.9	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		110.3	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	18.2	16.3	12.3	15.3
OKC	11.7	17.8	12.5	15.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	78	79	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.40	17	-13	30	14.7	17.5	-2.82	14.7	11.7	3.04
Chauncey Billups	75	77	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-3	10	14.7	17.0	-2.28	14.2	14.0	0.11
Nene	80	79	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-3	10	15.3	15.2	0.11	14.1	14.5	-0.42
Carmelo Anthony	81	80	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.47	2	2	0	15.0	16.5	-1.47	13.7	16.1	-2.36
J.R. Smith	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	4	-4	15.1	15.4	-0.28	14.4	13.6	0.82
Anthony Carter	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	1	2	17.6	14.9	2.72	17.2	13.7	3.57
Johan Petro	31	32	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	15.3	15.3	0.00	13.3	14.5	-1.22
Malik Allen	28	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.04	-4	8	-12	17.4	14.4	2.94	14.9	13.8	1.11
Ty Lawson	10	8	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.09	-6	10	-16	16.2	15.1	1.05	8.9	14.6	-5.73
Joey Graham	33	33	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.09	-9	13	-22	15.6	15.1	0.53	13.5	14.4	-0.93

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	42	43	0.46	-0.96	1.42	0.16	10	-14	24	13.9	14.3	-0.36	15.2	15.3	-0.16
Eric Maynor	22	21	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.11	-1	-3	2	16.6	13.4	3.23	14.4	15.5	-1.11
Serge Ibaka	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-3	2	15.8	13.7	2.07	16.6	14.9	1.74
Nenad Krstic	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-1	-2	14.8	13.8	1.01	16.1	14.8	1.32
Kevin Durant	92	93	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-5	6	13.7	21.5	-7.85	15.3	14.0	1.32
Nick Collison	62	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-4	4	13.8	14.7	-0.93	14.7	16.2	-1.50
Jeff Green	85	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	3	-10	14.1	14.6	-0.56	15.0	17.0	-2.04
Russell Westbrook	76	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.49	-3	-1	-2	13.4	16.6	-3.23	15.5	14.4	1.11
Thabo Sefolosha	56	56	-1.01	0.51	-1.51	-0.54	-16	12	-28	14.6	13.6	0.98	15.2	15.3	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.16,0	91.1%
NJN 84, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.89,0.9,0.42,0	91.0%
HOU 82, NOH 77	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.55,0.75,0.58,0	90.8%