NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	8.1 [235]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +83.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	69.9 [19]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -13.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.53	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.53	0.08	0.42	-0.03	21	59%	0.58	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Darren Collison	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.08	0.03	10	77%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	13	46%	0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard James	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	9	65%	0.09	5	-0.21	5	60%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.84	0.84	0.15	0.71	0.03	20	64%	0.86	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	4	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.02	0.03	13	76%	0.15	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,0.08	0.08	-0.08	0.17	0.01	14	33%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	57%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Jared Jeffries	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	11	42%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	15	49%	0.06	4	-0.19	5	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	30.2	14.8	27.6	2.7	43.4	142.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +18.0%

POR +4.9%

POR +16.0%

POR +6.7%

POR +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	15.4	107.2	109.3	104.1
season	14.5	15.8		104.3	104.3
opponent	15.3	15.6		107.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	13.6	14.2	15.5	14.0
POR	13.9	17.0	17.1	15.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	70	71	0.59	-1.09	1.68	0.12	16	-18	34	14.4	12.9	1.50	15.4	16.5	-1.12
Brandan Wright	30	30	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.16	15	-17	32	12.8	14.5	-1.74	17.2	15.1	2.09
Bernard James	31	30	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-5	8	15.2	13.4	1.75	15.2	16.0	-0.76
Rodrigue Beaubois	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-3	4	12.9	14.3	-1.43	16.2	15.6	0.65
Jae Crowder	1	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	0	-2	1.0	14.1	-13.10	2.0	15.9	-13.86
Dahntay Jones	18	18	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-3	4	12.4	14.3	-1.87	16.5	15.5	0.96
Elton Brand	32	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.11	-15	13	-28	13.9	14.0	-0.09	16.3	15.4	0.84
Darren Collison	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	1	-4	14.3	12.9	1.43	15.6	16.2	-0.65
Shawn Marion	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	3	-8	14.3	13.1	1.17	15.4	16.6	-1.17
O.J. Mayo	76	76	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.35	-10	8	-18	14.5	12.1	2.33	15.1	17.9	-2.73
Vince Carter	59	58	-1.04	0.54	-1.58	-0.72	-11	9	-20	13.2	15.2	-2.08	16.4	14.6	1.81

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	17	20	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.40	20	-18	38	16.0	15.7	0.34	12.6	14.3	-1.66
LaMarcus Aldridge	84	83	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-5	12	15.8	14.9	0.92	14.0	13.9	0.05
Nicolas Batum	81	79	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	1	0	15.8	15.1	0.71	14.2	12.8	1.46
Damian Lillard	81	82	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.22	6	-4	10	15.8	15.4	0.34	13.7	15.3	-1.53
Sasha Pavlovic	17	19	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	-11	24	15.5	15.8	-0.30	14.1	13.9	0.17
Wesley Matthews	80	80	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.46	-6	8	-14	15.6	16.2	-0.55	13.5	15.9	-2.39
Ronnie Price	20	20	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	1	0	14.8	15.9	-1.10	14.9	13.7	1.17
Meyers Leonard	5	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	6	-10	14.2	15.8	-1.60	15.2	13.9	1.30
Will Barton	12	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.06	-9	11	-20	17.0	15.5	1.46	14.9	13.8	1.06
Jared Jeffries	14	13	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	13	-24	16.6	15.6	0.99	13.5	14.0	-0.50
JJ Hickson	74	73	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	10	-18	15.5	16.6	-1.11	14.3	12.9	1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.01,0.02,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 103, HOU 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.11,0.09,0.04,1	91.8%
ATL 74, CHI 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.42,1	89.2%
ORL 114, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.58,1	88.5%