NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	74		Excitement	8.0 [198]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +46.1%
Chicago Bulls	76		Comeback	46.9 [64]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -27.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.24	-0.05	0.26	-0.03	13	47%	0.28	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Al Horford	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	14	50%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.19
Jannero Pargo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12,-0.12	0.00	-0.12	-0.00	10	52%	0.02	1	-0.14	7	57%	-0.04
Joe Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	17	28%	-0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.27	-0.11	-0.18	-0.01	8	32%	-0.23	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.21

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.01,0,0.08,0.16,0.46	0.46	0.03	0.43	0.01	15	55%	0.50	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.05,-0.05,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.18	-0.01	22	53%	0.28	2	-0.03	13	85%	0.03
Jimmy Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	4	22%	-0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	13	39%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.5	30.3	15.5	27.2	1.8	39.2	138.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +12.5%

CHI +28.5%

CHI +5.4%

CHI +4.7%

ATL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	17.2	14.3	15.6	80.4	83.5	102.8
season	15.7	16.0		102.5	104.7
opponent	15.9	15.9		97.0	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.9	15.7	17.8	17.5	17.2
CHI	14.2	16.3	12.7	13.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	30	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	7	-16	18.3	16.7	1.62	11.9	15.4	-3.56
Vladimir Radmanovic	25	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.13	-9	7	-16	17.7	17.0	0.71	12.0	15.1	-3.11
Zaza Pachulia	16	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	5	-12	19.8	16.7	3.15	11.5	14.8	-3.25
Willie Green	15	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	7	-16	20.0	16.7	3.34	12.5	14.6	-2.14
Jannero Pargo	27	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.16	-12	10	-22	17.3	17.2	0.18	13.4	14.6	-1.12
Jeff Teague	65	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.60	10	-12	22	17.2	17.3	-0.18	14.6	13.4	1.12
Joe Johnson	77	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.52	7	-9	16	16.7	20.0	-3.34	14.6	12.5	2.14
Al Horford	76	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-7	12	16.7	19.8	-3.15	14.8	11.5	3.25
Josh Smith	67	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.57	7	-9	16	17.0	17.7	-0.71	15.1	12.0	3.11
Marvin Williams	62	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.58	7	-9	16	16.7	18.3	-1.62	15.4	11.9	3.56

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	46	47	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-15	32	13.8	14.7	-0.95	16.4	18.0	-1.60
Kyle Korver	53	55	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.32	18	-16	34	13.7	15.1	-1.37	17.7	16.5	1.20
Luol Deng	84	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.43	4	-2	6	14.1	16.0	-1.89	17.3	16.3	1.00
Derrick Rose	84	84	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	14.2	14.3	-0.04	16.9	20.0	-3.06
Omer Asik	57	56	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-8	18	13.6	15.3	-1.71	17.1	17.3	-0.16
Joakim Noah	28	30	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.32	-8	10	-18	15.2	13.8	1.39	18.0	16.8	1.23
Jimmy Butler	1	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	23.0	14.2	8.84	4.5	17.5	-12.99
John Lucas III	7	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	2	-2	14.3	14.2	0.04	20.0	16.9	3.06
Ronnie Brewer	44	42	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.14	-18	20	-38	15.0	13.5	1.49	17.0	17.4	-0.34
Carlos Boozer	51	51	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.01	-15	17	-32	14.9	13.5	1.39	17.5	16.8	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 114, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.58,1	91.8%
ATL 107, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.08,0.32,0.42,1	91.7%
HOU 120, DAL 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.37,1	90.6%