NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	7.9 [254]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +74.0%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.9 [339]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -18.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.74	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.17,0.74	0.09	0.66	0.00	17	61%	0.78	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Alan Anderson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	9	57%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Terrence Ross	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	11	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	18	51%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Landry Fields	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	3	50%	0.01	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.29	0.29	0.01	0.27	-0.00	11	54%	0.34	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.13	-0.02	7	55%	0.21	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	14	59%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	12	58%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	13	50%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.14	-0.01	16	47%	-0.05	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.7	29.4	16.3	25.3	0.8	31.5	129.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +72.3%

ORL -21.1%

ORL -17.9%

TOR +14.9%

TOR +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.4	15.4	109.0	104.4	104.1
season	16.1	15.5		104.4	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.3		107.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.4	15.1	17.5	18.5	16.6
ORL	16.6	14.9	16.0	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	67	69	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.51	14	-12	26	16.6	16.7	-0.13	15.4	15.6	-0.27
Jose Calderon	48	50	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.61	2	0	2	17.5	15.5	1.99	15.6	15.2	0.42
DeMar DeRozan	80	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-2	6	16.8	14.2	2.63	15.3	16.8	-1.54
Alan Anderson	53	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-2	6	16.0	17.4	-1.40	15.0	16.1	-1.10
Terrence Ross	42	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	5	-8	17.1	16.1	1.06	15.2	15.7	-0.56
Landry Fields	42	43	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	4	-6	17.6	15.7	1.87	15.3	15.6	-0.28
Aaron Gray	14	15	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	-1	4	12.6	17.3	-4.68	16.7	15.2	1.48
Kyle Lowry	41	41	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.17	0	2	-2	15.5	17.5	-1.99	15.2	15.6	-0.42
Ed Davis	58	56	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.03	-12	14	-26	16.6	16.5	0.06	16.2	14.2	2.00

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	4	4	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	16.7	15.4	1.38	12.7	16.8	-4.01
Andrew Nicholson	9	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	3	-8	16.1	15.4	0.76	10.9	17.1	-6.27
Gustavo Ayon	16	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	3	-8	17.3	15.0	2.29	12.6	17.5	-4.90
Maurice Harkless	28	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-1	0	14.3	15.9	-1.60	17.3	16.2	1.08
Nikola Vucevic	57	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	1	-4	16.2	14.2	2.00	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Glen Davis	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-7	12	15.1	16.0	-0.89	17.4	14.5	2.87
Jameer Nelson	79	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.52	6	-8	14	15.5	15.0	0.49	17.3	11.9	5.40
E'Twaun Moore	45	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	0	-2	14.4	16.5	-2.12	16.7	16.5	0.25
JJ Redick	77	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	15.3	16.1	-0.84	16.5	17.1	-0.66
Arron Afflalo	78	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.37	-6	4	-10	15.7	14.1	1.58	16.7	16.1	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.1,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 93, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.31,0.19,0.21,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.07,0.02,0	92.0%
NOP 105, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.08,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.15,0.31,0.04,0	91.8%
LAC 95, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.46,0.33,0.15,0	91.7%