NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	82		Excitement	8.8 [148]		MVP	Paul George (IND): +22.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	81		Comeback	2.4 [258]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -30.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.22,0.22	0.01	0.17	-0.04	13	46%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	3	86%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Tyler Hansbrough	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	82%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Orlando Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	150%	0.12	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Gerald Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	7	62%	0.07	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
David West	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	16	44%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
George Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.25	8	-0.37	3	67%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	0.00	9	94%	0.25	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.13	-0.01	14	42%	0.17	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.16,0.07,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	12	54%	0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.11	0.01	8	37%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.21,-0.21,-0.31	-0.31	-0.12	-0.21	-0.02	22	32%	-0.21	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.5	28.4	17.3	26.4	3.4	34.9	137.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +62.0%

IND +10.7%

MEM -16.2%

MEM -27.6%

IND +21.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MEM	NBA	IND	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	17.2	15.4	97.6	93.1	104.1
season	16.1	16.5		102.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.1	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.2	16.8	17.8	17.3	16.5
MEM	19.1	16.0	17.4	16.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	74	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	5	-9	16.7	15.1	1.60	17.3	16.1	1.20
David West	64	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	0	1	15.7	18.9	-3.20	17.2	17.0	0.27
Roy Hibbert	56	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.42	-2	3	-5	15.9	17.7	-1.75	18.3	14.8	3.45
George Hill	56	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.42	-2	3	-5	15.9	17.7	-1.75	18.3	14.8	3.45
Lance Stephenson	61	65	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.25	2	-1	3	16.1	17.7	-1.63	17.3	16.7	0.64
Tyler Hansbrough	20	21	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	1	-1	18.9	15.7	3.20	17.0	17.2	-0.27
Orlando Johnson	21	21	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	-7	15	16.1	16.7	-0.56	16.8	17.3	-0.53
D.J. Augustin	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.05	3	-2	5	17.7	15.9	1.75	14.8	18.3	-3.45
Ian Mahinmi	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.05	3	-2	5	17.7	15.9	1.75	14.8	18.3	-3.45
Gerald Green	12	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	5	-9	18.3	16.2	2.12	16.0	17.3	-1.33

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marreese Speights	21	20	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-2	3	14.5	18.0	-3.48	17.7	16.1	1.56
Marc Gasol	57	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.34	8	-9	17	18.0	15.5	2.48	15.5	18.3	-2.80
Mike Conley	61	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-7	13	17.3	16.9	0.39	15.8	18.3	-2.52
Wayne Ellington	44	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-4	7	16.2	18.1	-1.89	17.9	15.0	2.84
Rudy Gay	73	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.41	5	-6	11	17.2	16.8	0.45	16.4	17.2	-0.84
Darrell Arthur	30	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	8	-17	15.5	18.0	-2.48	18.3	15.5	2.80
Jerryd Bayless	36	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.09	-12	11	-23	16.6	17.6	-1.03	17.4	15.9	1.47
Tony Allen	47	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	4	-9	18.2	15.9	2.33	15.7	17.4	-1.70
Zach Randolph	66	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	1	-3	18.0	14.5	3.48	16.1	17.7	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.19,0.37,0.55,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 89, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.42,0	91.9%
SAC 111, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.16,0	91.2%
NYK 87, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.15,0	90.6%