NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	109		Excitement	9.2 [107]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +42.8%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	11.8 [203]		LVP	Vince Carter (DAL): -24.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31	0.03	0.27	-0.02	15	56%	0.39	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
O.J. Mayo	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.08	-0.02	21	68%	0.31	6	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	4	78%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	13	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard James	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	33%	0.04	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.06	-0.18	0.02	16	42%	-0.12	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.03	0.39	-0.00	5	60%	0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.18	-0.01	10	68%	0.29	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.05	10	74%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	21	53%	0.08	1	-0.04	9	89%	0.05
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.03	20	63%	0.18	4	-0.15	11	82%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Harrellson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	31.7	16.4	25.8	1.8	31.8	1.8	15.5	153.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.7%

MIA +10.1%

DAL -5.6%

MIA +9.6%

MIA +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.4	101.9	112.3	104.1
season	14.5	15.7		104.3	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.6		102.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.3	14.3	14.2	17.0	18.7	15.2
MIA	13.4	14.5	15.8	14.3	16.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	34	34	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.12	8	-18	26	14.4	15.6	-1.16	15.9	14.1	1.77
Dahntay Jones	39	41	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.12	6	-16	22	15.2	15.2	0.04	16.3	13.6	2.76
Rodrigue Beaubois	24	27	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.05	8	-18	26	13.7	15.7	-1.98	16.6	14.0	2.61
Chris Douglas-Roberts	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	15.2	-4.25	18.0	14.6	3.38
Bernard James	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	11.0	15.2	-4.25	18.0	14.6	3.38
Chris Kaman	60	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-5	0	15.2	15.3	-0.09	14.3	15.1	-0.79
Vince Carter	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.38	-1	-9	8	14.4	17.1	-2.77	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Dirk Nowitzki	59	59	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	3	-16	15.3	15.1	0.15	13.9	15.6	-1.70
Darren Collison	84	80	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.16	-18	8	-26	15.6	13.8	1.81	14.0	16.5	-2.50
Shawn Marion	65	63	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.24	-16	6	-22	16.1	13.8	2.26	14.3	15.1	-0.82
O.J. Mayo	94	92	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.21	-19	9	-28	15.7	11.9	3.74	14.3	16.8	-2.46

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	77	78	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.31	17	-7	24	14.7	14.4	0.33	16.1	12.7	3.45
LeBron James	85	87	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-2	14	14.0	17.2	-3.17	14.8	16.8	-1.96
Dwyane Wade	89	91	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-2	14	14.6	15.0	-0.42	15.6	12.7	2.96
Mario Chalmers	54	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	-6	22	13.9	15.5	-1.63	15.3	15.1	0.21
Shane Battier	55	56	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	14.5	14.8	-0.26	15.1	15.4	-0.32
Ray Allen	53	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	8	-6	15.2	14.1	1.15	15.9	14.6	1.28
Mike Miller	16	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	8	-6	15.6	14.5	1.15	16.1	15.1	1.08
Josh Harrellson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	18.0	14.6	3.38	11.0	15.2	-4.25
Joel Anthony	25	24	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	16	-22	14.6	14.7	-0.12	14.0	15.6	-1.61
Udonis Haslem	43	44	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	14	-18	15.0	14.4	0.59	13.8	16.2	-2.40
Norris Cole	32	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	18	-26	15.9	14.1	1.80	14.3	15.6	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.15,0.24,0.08,0.46,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.1,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.95,0.84,1	91.1%
PHX 102, BOS 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.47,0.39,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.69,0.93,0.99,1	89.6%
GSW 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.17,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.97,1,1	89.5%