NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	87		Excitement	9.0 [120]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +41.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Comeback	7.2 [75]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIN): -41.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.42	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.19,0.25,0.1,0.2,0.09,0.42	0.08	0.34	0.00	22	60%	0.55	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.06
Greg Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Omer Asik	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	13	42%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	9	33%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13	0.01	-0.14	-0.00	12	50%	-0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.15,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.16	-0.12	-0.01	9	40%	0.00	7	-0.28	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.19	-0.01	6	44%	0.21	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.04
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	5	57%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Alexey Shved	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.16,0.16,0.07,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	15	53%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.24	-0.24	0.00	-0.25	-0.00	14	60%	0.17	4	-0.41	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.32,-0.32,-0.41	-0.41	-0.20	-0.22	-0.00	14	24%	-0.25	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	25.2	15.0	24.0	1.8	33.4	124.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +28.4%

MIN -13.7%

HOU +7.0%

HOU +17.4%

HOU +10.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIN	NBA	HOU	MIN	NBA
this game	13.5	15.9	15.4	88.8	85.7	104.1
season	14.2	15.6		107.9	101.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		103.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.1	14.1	14.9	12.9	13.5
MIN	15.4	17.2	14.5	16.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	69	69	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.42	14	-11	25	13.9	12.7	1.20	16.7	13.9	2.83
Chandler Parsons	75	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.48	3	0	3	12.9	15.4	-2.47	15.2	18.3	-3.11
Jeremy Lin	59	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	4	-5	12.4	15.2	-2.87	15.6	16.4	-0.88
Greg Smith	31	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.09	17	-14	31	14.6	13.0	1.63	16.5	15.6	0.87
James Harden	79	77	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.50	-9	12	-21	13.3	14.5	-1.21	15.8	16.4	-0.63
Omer Asik	76	77	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.33	-5	8	-13	12.8	15.9	-3.11	15.5	17.2	-1.66
Toney Douglas	43	42	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.05	7	-4	11	15.1	12.2	2.88	16.5	15.5	0.99
Marcus Morris	58	56	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	14	-25	14.4	12.1	2.28	16.1	15.7	0.39

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	29	30	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.10	4	-7	11	18.4	14.8	3.64	15.2	12.8	2.40
Nikola Pekovic	46	46	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-6	9	16.4	15.4	1.03	13.8	13.2	0.57
Luke Ridnour	44	42	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-2	1	14.4	17.1	-2.77	12.4	14.3	-1.92
Andrei Kirilenko	64	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-1	-1	14.5	18.5	-3.95	12.8	14.7	-1.84
Ricky Rubio	38	39	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.13	-9	6	-15	17.9	14.6	3.36	15.6	12.1	3.56
Jose Juan Barea	53	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-3	3	17.0	14.6	2.46	13.8	13.1	0.66
Dante Cunningham	73	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.39	-5	2	-7	16.0	15.6	0.33	13.9	12.2	1.68
Kevin Love	77	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	1	-5	15.5	17.4	-1.90	12.9	15.4	-2.47
Alexey Shved	66	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.56	-1	-2	1	15.0	17.7	-2.67	12.6	15.4	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.8,0.71,0.61,0.38,0.55,0.45,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 85, OKC 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.84,0.66,0.47,0.63,0.57,0.53,0	90.0%
NYK 78, MIA 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.45,0.69,0	89.8%
DET 111, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.79,0.63,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.77,0.42,0	89.6%