NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	2.6 [1249]		MVP	Mike Miller (MIA): +7.2%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	1.2 [1071]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (DAL): -10.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	14	59%	0.07	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	9	65%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	67%	0.05	2	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	13	80%	0.10	5	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	13	63%	0.05	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.00	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bernard James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	9	32%	-0.00	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.08	6	71%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	8	55%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	14	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	10	40%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	0.09	9	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	14	27%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.0	28.2	18.4	30.4	2.7	30.0	140.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.9%

MIA +6.3%

DAL -4.8%

DAL -5.0%

DAL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.4	111.1	97.9	104.1
season	15.7	14.5		110.2	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.9		105.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.2	15.9	14.6	16.8	14.8
DAL	15.5	16.1	14.8	12.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	55	54	0.65	-0.15	0.79	-0.53	40	-25	65	13.2	16.8	-3.58	15.8	13.0	2.80
Chris Bosh	69	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.35	31	-16	47	14.5	15.6	-1.11	15.5	12.2	3.29
Mario Chalmers	59	58	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.21	22	-7	29	13.3	17.1	-3.77	14.6	14.6	-0.01
LeBron James	66	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.35	25	-10	35	13.8	16.9	-3.17	14.9	13.9	0.95
Mike Miller	34	35	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	10	-5	15.8	14.3	1.43	15.5	14.0	1.50
Udonis Haslem	35	35	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.48	26	-11	37	13.3	15.7	-2.43	15.4	14.1	1.36
Shane Battier	49	48	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.27	-6	21	-27	16.5	13.2	3.29	14.6	14.5	0.05
Norris Cole	46	45	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.55	-18	33	-51	17.0	12.9	4.06	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Rashard Lewis	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	24	-33	15.0	14.8	0.19	9.1	15.0	-5.83
James Jones	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	24	-33	15.0	14.8	0.19	9.1	15.0	-5.83
Dexter Pittman	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	24	-33	15.0	14.8	0.19	9.1	15.0	-5.83
Joel Anthony	22	20	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	22	-29	15.8	14.5	1.27	13.2	14.9	-1.65
Ray Allen	36	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.32	-16	31	-47	17.2	13.5	3.76	13.7	15.0	-1.28

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodrigue Beaubois	40	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.40	13	-28	41	14.6	14.5	0.12	17.2	13.3	3.96
Bernard James	40	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.20	6	-21	27	14.2	14.8	-0.52	17.0	13.3	3.67
Jae Crowder	49	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	-11	7	14.5	14.6	-0.18	16.5	13.2	3.25
Dominique Jones	52	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-15	15	14.4	14.8	-0.41	15.7	13.8	1.87
Vince Carter	49	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-17	19	14.2	14.9	-0.75	15.7	13.9	1.81
Dahntay Jones	33	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-7	-1	15.0	14.3	0.72	14.4	15.0	-0.61
Chris Kaman	42	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.36	-27	12	-39	15.5	13.8	1.71	12.1	16.8	-4.66
Darren Collison	56	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.15	-10	-5	-5	14.1	15.1	-1.02	13.7	16.5	-2.85
Shawn Marion	61	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.20	-23	8	-31	14.7	14.3	0.44	13.6	17.0	-3.37
O.J. Mayo	63	65	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.22	-24	9	-33	14.6	14.6	-0.00	13.6	17.2	-3.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 103, DET 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
PHX 123, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DET 86, SEA 65	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%