NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	7.8 [275]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +33.6%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	2.5 [515]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -23.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.23,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.14	0.20	0.01	20	65%	0.40	3	-0.07	12	100%	0.11
Mickael Pietrus	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	15	64%	0.21	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	10	54%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	14	27%	-0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	16	41%	-0.18	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.00	18	64%	0.29	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,0.09,0.17,0.17	0.17	-0.00	0.17	-0.01	16	52%	0.31	2	-0.14	12	58%	-0.04
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	11	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	70%	0.08	2	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	8	46%	0.01	3	-0.09	8	75%	0.03
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	7	20%	-0.15	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	30.4	15.3	30.7	2.5	37.4	143.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +56.8%

TOR -11.9%

SAC +31.8%

TOR -32.3%

SAC +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	15.4	102.0	108.1	104.1
season	16.1	15.0		104.4	104.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.4	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	17.5	12.3	14.7	14.6
SAC	13.5	13.8	16.5	14.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	46	46	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.03	9	-16	25	14.5	14.6	-0.11	14.8	14.5	0.24
Terrence Ross	24	25	0.28	-0.78	1.05	0.13	5	-12	17	16.5	14.0	2.49	15.1	14.5	0.62
Jose Calderon	29	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	16.8	13.7	3.09	13.0	15.4	-2.33
Amir Johnson	61	62	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-12	17	14.1	15.4	-1.28	15.5	13.3	2.17
Jonas Valanciunas	35	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.01	-10	3	-13	15.5	14.0	1.50	13.2	15.4	-2.21
Kyle Lowry	78	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	13.9	17.4	-3.54	15.2	12.5	2.70
DeMar DeRozan	81	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.33	-6	-1	-5	14.2	16.2	-2.00	14.8	14.2	0.60
Mickael Pietrus	82	82	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	4	-15	14.3	16.1	-1.77	14.5	15.5	-1.05
Andrea Bargnani	54	56	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.30	-18	11	-29	14.6	14.6	-0.06	14.5	14.8	-0.28

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyreke Evans	71	71	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.48	10	-3	13	14.9	14.1	0.77	14.0	16.0	-1.96
Jason Thompson	69	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.45	8	-1	9	15.1	13.7	1.32	14.7	14.2	0.49
John Salmons	69	67	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-3	13	14.6	14.9	-0.30	15.0	13.6	1.37
DeMarcus Cousins	75	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-3	13	14.4	15.6	-1.22	14.5	14.9	-0.42
James Johnson	31	31	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	3	1	13.3	15.3	-2.04	13.5	15.1	-1.61
Aaron Brooks	67	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-1	9	14.8	14.3	0.46	14.2	15.5	-1.33
Charles Hayes	22	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	10	-13	15.0	14.5	0.50	15.4	14.4	1.08
Thomas Robinson	31	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.13	-2	9	-11	14.6	14.7	-0.11	14.5	14.6	-0.10
Jimmer Fredette	25	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.22	-2	9	-11	15.1	14.5	0.62	16.5	14.0	2.49
Marcus Thornton	35	34	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.20	-8	15	-23	14.7	14.6	0.05	14.8	14.5	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.59,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.76,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 106, PHX 116	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.59,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.96,1,1	92.3%
SAS 104, MEM 111	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.56,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.73,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.27,0.47,0.45,0.78,0.91,1	92.1%
MIN 102, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.9,1	91.5%