NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	7.2 [304]		MVP	Kevin Martin (HOU): +21.7%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	1.7 [378]		LVP	Al Harrington (DEN): -7.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kosta Koufos	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	5	100%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.07	-0.03	15	44%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Arron Afflalo	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.08	0.03	14	57%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.07	0.05	15	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	0.01	16	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	62%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Julyan Stone	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.06	-0.02	0.04	12	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.08
Jordan Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.24	0.03	0.05	15	87%	0.33	4	-0.12	10	90%	0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	11	61%	0.21	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.05
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	8	53%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	0%	-0.07
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	36.1	1.8	31.3	14.8	28.1	0.3	34.8	147.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -6.3%

HOU -9.9%

DEN +38.4%

DEN +24.6%

DEN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	16.6	14.1	15.6	125.8	110.5	102.8
season	14.5	15.4		107.5	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.2	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	16.6	17.1	17.0	16.6
HOU	13.2	12.8	14.2	16.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	75	78	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.09	18	-6	24	16.2	18.1	-1.83	13.8	15.5	-1.76
Corey Brewer	57	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	4	4	17.6	14.9	2.76	15.0	12.4	2.62
Al Harrington	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	4	4	15.9	17.5	-1.57	14.2	14.0	0.24
Kenneth Faried	56	59	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	1	10	17.7	14.8	2.94	13.9	14.3	-0.40
Arron Afflalo	58	59	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	6	0	17.8	14.6	3.22	14.4	13.5	0.90
Andre Miller	63	64	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	5	2	15.7	18.5	-2.83	13.8	14.7	-0.93
Kosta Koufos	45	44	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	9	-6	14.1	18.9	-4.83	14.5	13.7	0.82
Timofey Mozgov	32	34	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	10	-8	19.2	15.2	3.93	13.6	14.3	-0.73
Jordan Hamilton	23	22	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	11	-10	15.1	17.1	-1.93	13.4	14.3	-0.94
Julyan Stone	3	2	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	16	-20	12.0	16.7	-4.73	5.0	14.3	-9.28

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	56	54	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.12	7	-19	26	14.1	14.1	-0.03	16.8	16.3	0.56
Goran Dragic	52	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-11	10	14.6	13.4	1.22	15.5	17.8	-2.29
Kevin Martin	80	79	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-12	12	13.8	15.5	-1.72	17.8	9.8	8.00
Luis Scola	62	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-8	4	13.5	15.3	-1.82	16.7	16.4	0.29
Chase Budinger	11	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	-3	-6	14.5	14.0	0.42	11.2	17.2	-6.03
Kyle Lowry	57	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	14.2	13.8	0.40	17.3	15.5	1.83
Courtney Lee	62	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-4	-4	13.7	14.9	-1.22	15.5	18.8	-3.33
Samuel Dalembert	50	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.06	-14	2	-16	15.4	12.6	2.78	16.3	16.8	-0.49
Chandler Parsons	45	43	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.05	-21	9	-30	13.6	14.5	-0.84	17.3	16.0	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.7%
SAS 92, DEN 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.09,0,0	93.2%
PHX 88, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	92.6%