NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	6.1 [600]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +15.4%
Denver Nuggets	83		Comeback	2.2 [735]		LVP	Eduardo Najera (DEN): -12.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	8	37%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	14	50%	0.13	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Brent Barry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	6	92%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	15	47%	0.02	0	0.00	10	30%	-0.13
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.06	21	55%	0.06	3	-0.09	5	40%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.05	0.01	25	62%	0.23	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	14	64%	0.18	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	36%	-0.02	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	13	41%	0.01	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	4	30%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.8	31.4	18.6	25.0	3.4	33.6	138.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.7%

DEN -13.6%

SAS +22.6%

SAS +13.9%

DEN -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	14.6	15.4	98.9	89.2	104.5
season	16.2	14.0		107.5	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.5	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.4	17.5	17.4	16.4
DEN	12.8	13.4	17.6	15.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	59	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-2	13	16.8	15.6	1.18	15.1	13.7	1.41
Tony Parker	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.18	13	-4	17	16.2	16.8	-0.60	14.4	15.4	-0.98
Bruce Bowen	66	66	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-2	13	15.7	17.9	-2.15	13.9	16.4	-2.49
Tim Duncan	74	71	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	3	3	16.2	17.1	-0.93	14.8	14.1	0.67
Matt Bonner	33	34	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	7	-5	17.9	15.5	2.44	14.6	14.6	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	35	38	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	5	-1	17.3	15.8	1.52	15.9	13.7	2.23
Robert Horry	39	38	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	4	1	15.4	17.1	-1.73	13.7	15.2	-1.46
Jacque Vaughn	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	9	-9	28.7	16.0	12.71	22.3	14.3	7.99
Michael Finley	29	29	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	10	-11	14.1	17.4	-3.29	14.2	14.8	-0.62
Brent Barry	35	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	11	-13	16.7	16.2	0.56	14.0	15.0	-1.00
Beno Udrih	19	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	13	-17	16.8	16.2	0.60	15.4	14.4	0.98

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	31	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-9	9	15.0	14.4	0.55	16.4	16.4	0.02
Reggie Evans	26	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	-7	5	14.6	14.6	0.02	17.6	15.9	1.63
Yakhouba Diawara	28	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-7	5	15.7	14.1	1.54	17.0	16.1	0.96
J.R. Smith	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-11	13	14.3	15.1	-0.79	16.8	15.5	1.27
Marcus Camby	73	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-5	1	14.3	15.8	-1.53	16.0	18.0	-2.03
Earl Boykins	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	14.4	15.6	-1.25	16.4	16.1	0.38
Eduardo Najera	47	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	5	-19	15.2	14.0	1.15	16.0	16.8	-0.86
Linas Kleiza	37	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-2	-5	13.9	15.1	-1.22	15.8	16.7	-0.97
Allen Iverson	86	85	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	4	-17	14.8	12.1	2.66	16.2	17.6	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 117, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.04,0,0,0	93.2%
SAS 77, NYK 67	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.02,0,0	93.1%
UTA 93, MEM 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%