NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	2.9 [959]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +17.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	93		Comeback	1.8 [653]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (POR): -14.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.24	0.01	0.07	22	68%	0.18	0	0.00	12	83%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.00	-0.03	23	58%	0.15	4	-0.06	11	82%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	44%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	8	63%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	3	12%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Norris Cole	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.05	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	6	88%	0.11	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	18	56%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	61%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	2	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	9	55%	-0.04	3	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	0.08	16	53%	-0.05	5	-0.09	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	29.2	18.6	34.2	3.4	36.5	148.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.1%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +7.5%

POR -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	16.6	15.0	15.6	116.3	103.3	102.8
season	15.5	15.7		105.6	104.1
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	16.2	16.0	19.8	16.6
POR	16.5	16.5	12.7	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	56	58	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.15	21	-7	28	15.8	17.9	-2.08	15.7	13.7	1.99
Mario Chalmers	65	63	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.12	19	-5	24	17.1	15.5	1.58	14.5	16.2	-1.70
Udonis Haslem	51	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	4	6	17.1	15.9	1.21	15.2	14.9	0.29
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.04	13	1	12	16.7	16.3	0.48	14.8	15.6	-0.81
LeBron James	79	76	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	6	2	16.9	14.6	2.31	14.7	16.6	-1.91
Shane Battier	49	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.15	15	-1	16	16.8	16.3	0.47	14.3	15.9	-1.59
Mike Miller	45	43	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	12	-10	16.2	17.0	-0.82	16.0	14.2	1.76
Norris Cole	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.21	-5	19	-24	15.5	17.1	-1.58	16.2	14.5	1.70
Dexter Pittman	23	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.29	-13	27	-40	16.2	16.7	-0.51	14.3	15.2	-0.94

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	8	9	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.06	5	-19	24	13.2	15.2	-1.96	19.7	16.3	3.40
Joel Przybilla	37	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.28	10	-24	34	13.7	16.0	-2.26	16.6	16.6	0.03
Elliot Williams	11	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-13	12	14.4	15.1	-0.76	17.1	16.5	0.57
Raymond Felton	29	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-19	24	15.4	14.9	0.56	16.3	16.8	-0.51
Wesley Matthews	63	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-8	2	15.0	15.1	-0.11	17.1	15.6	1.48
Nicolas Batum	58	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	-1	-12	15.4	14.4	0.97	16.8	16.3	0.46
Jamal Crawford	61	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.10	-17	3	-20	15.1	14.9	0.25	16.5	16.8	-0.30
Gerald Wallace	68	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	2	-18	14.2	17.7	-3.51	16.9	15.4	1.52
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	0	-14	15.4	12.8	2.66	16.2	18.8	-2.58
Marcus Camby	39	39	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.20	-23	9	-32	16.7	13.8	2.88	15.3	17.5	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 122, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
MIA 91, SAC 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
BOS 115, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%