NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	115		Excitement	3.4 [1080]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +6.8%
Atlanta Hawks	91		Comeback	1.4 [753]		LVP	DerMarr Johnson (ATL): -6.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	18	69%	0.10	3	-0.03	9	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	69%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	6	59%	0.04	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.03	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	21	55%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	9	46%	-0.01	2	-0.01	6	50%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0.04	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	19	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.06	14	53%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	13	52%	-0.05	2	-0.01	7	100%	0.02
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	10	35%	-0.04	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.3	27.7	15.7	27.2	1.7	25.2	124.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +32.0%

BOS +6.2%

BOS +2.2%

BOS +8.2%

BOS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.6	122.3	96.8	102.3
season	15.0	15.5		100.9	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.7	16.1	14.7	16.8	15.6
ATL	13.5	15.9	16.6	14.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	78	77	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.11	18	6	12	15.0	18.2	-3.17	15.0	15.3	-0.26
Kenny Anderson	51	52	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.23	21	3	18	15.2	16.0	-0.87	16.0	14.0	1.96
Paul Pierce	69	69	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.17	19	5	14	15.0	17.0	-2.03	15.5	14.0	1.48
Joe Johnson	39	40	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.11	15	9	6	15.3	15.7	-0.38	16.1	14.3	1.81
Tony Battie	44	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	13	-2	15.1	16.0	-0.91	15.3	14.9	0.48
Eric Williams	59	57	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.13	13	11	2	16.3	14.2	2.11	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Vitaly Potapenko	50	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.19	13	11	2	16.0	15.1	0.91	14.9	15.3	-0.48
Walter McCarty	33	35	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	20	-16	16.5	15.1	1.39	14.7	15.3	-0.64
Erick Strickland	43	42	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.03	3	21	-18	16.0	15.2	0.87	14.0	16.0	-1.96
Mark Blount	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	18.5	15.4	3.08	16.2	15.0	1.22

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	31	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-22	20	15.8	14.7	1.03	16.3	15.2	1.05
Cal Bowdler	19	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.11	-7	-17	10	14.4	15.3	-0.83	14.5	15.8	-1.30
Mark Strickland	33	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-20	16	14.5	15.4	-0.97	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Emanual Davis	25	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-20	16	15.2	15.1	0.10	14.0	16.1	-2.03
Nazr Mohammed	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	-15	6	15.4	14.8	0.53	15.6	15.5	0.05
Hanno Mottola	39	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	-13	2	14.8	15.3	-0.50	15.8	15.4	0.43
DerMarr Johnson	65	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.32	-23	-1	-22	15.5	14.2	1.27	16.1	14.5	1.55
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	78	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-10	-4	15.2	14.6	0.63	15.6	15.1	0.53
Jason Terry	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.20	-22	-2	-20	14.7	15.8	-1.03	15.2	16.3	-1.05
Dion Glover	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.25	-24	0	-24	15.0	15.3	-0.22	15.9	14.2	1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 116, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
ATL 105, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
CHI 95, UTA 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%