NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	8.4 [149]		MVP	Dante Cunningham (MEM): +88.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	103		Comeback	63.9 [15]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -22.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29	0.21	0.15	0.07	14	90%	0.34	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.13	0.01	15	58%	0.22	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.01	14	60%	0.11	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Kosta Koufos	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.2,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	48%	0.01	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.88	0.88	-0.01	0.88	-0.01	5	40%	0.88	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	8	63%	0.16	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Jeremy Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.04	-0.02	4	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.01	14	59%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.25,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.02	-0.05	19	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.07
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	62%	0.14	5	-0.15	1	100%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	11	55%	0.06	7	-0.20	7	86%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.22	-0.22	0.04	-0.24	0.01	11	64%	0.06	3	-0.28	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.0	29.0	16.8	28.0	1.5	29.5	131.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +65.2%

MEM +25.5%

DEN -19.4%

DEN -29.2%

MEM +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.6	16.7	15.6	110.9	112.0	102.8
season	14.5	15.6		107.5	102.0
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.3	13.8	14.2	14.3	14.6
MEM	16.5	16.2	15.8	18.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	40	41	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.36	17	-18	35	13.8	15.2	-1.43	17.2	16.3	0.99
Kenneth Faried	46	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.54	14	-15	29	14.5	14.7	-0.17	17.0	16.3	0.71
Timofey Mozgov	32	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	2	-5	14.7	14.6	0.07	15.3	17.4	-2.17
Kosta Koufos	10	11	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	9	-19	16.4	14.4	2.01	17.5	16.6	0.86
Andre Miller	57	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.54	11	-12	23	14.6	14.6	0.01	17.2	15.8	1.42
Chris Andersen	47	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.41	5	-6	11	13.9	15.4	-1.55	18.0	15.5	2.51
Al Harrington	49	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	11	-23	15.0	14.1	0.88	16.5	16.9	-0.37
Corey Brewer	61	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-3	5	14.3	15.2	-0.88	16.3	17.6	-1.35
Arron Afflalo	47	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.19	-21	20	-41	15.0	14.2	0.80	15.7	17.7	-1.94
Ty Lawson	71	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	7	-15	15.1	13.1	1.96	16.5	17.2	-0.70

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	58	58	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.50	11	-10	21	17.0	16.2	0.78	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Marc Gasol	77	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-9	19	16.8	16.2	0.59	15.1	11.7	3.41
Mike Conley	70	73	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-3	7	17.0	15.8	1.21	15.3	11.8	3.55
Rudy Gay	79	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	1	-1	16.7	16.5	0.27	14.2	17.1	-2.85
Dante Cunningham	29	30	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.57	-11	12	-23	16.8	16.7	0.09	14.6	14.6	-0.01
Marreese Speights	69	68	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	-5	11	16.2	18.3	-2.09	14.4	15.3	-0.92
Jeremy Pargo	20	18	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	4	-7	15.3	17.1	-1.72	11.6	15.3	-3.73
Tony Allen	58	55	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.06	-12	13	-25	16.9	16.3	0.64	15.1	13.9	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 115, SAC 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.42,1	92.6%
HOU 96, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.68,0.9,0.76,0.6,0.55,0.89,0.86,0.72,1	91.4%
DEN 93, MEM 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.76,0.42,1	91.0%