NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	7.5 [261]		MVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): +61.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	30.2 [40]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -18.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.62	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.62	0.25	0.34	-0.03	18	77%	0.62	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.16,0.2	0.06	0.12	-0.02	13	63%	0.25	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	10	56%	0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	15	34%	-0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.06	-0.00	10	77%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	75%	0.14	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	21	48%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.07	-0.00	12	58%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	14	24%	-0.10	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	26.5	16.5	20.5	2.3	30.5	124.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.3%

ORL +5.5%

MIL -3.3%

ORL +2.1%

MIL -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.6	108.8	103.3	102.8
season	16.2	14.6		102.8	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		103.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.4	16.4	16.8	16.9	16.1
MIL	16.3	17.1	14.5	14.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	48	48	1.08	-0.58	1.65	0.52	19	-14	33	15.6	16.7	-1.11	16.2	14.8	1.42
Ryan Anderson	65	64	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.54	16	-11	27	16.2	15.8	0.34	16.4	13.7	2.69
Jameer Nelson	55	58	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.46	17	-12	29	15.7	16.7	-1.10	16.1	14.7	1.40
Hedo Turkoglu	62	63	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.46	17	-12	29	15.5	17.4	-1.95	15.5	15.7	-0.17
Dwight Howard	80	80	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	0	5	16.1	16.1	-0.00	15.5	16.2	-0.71
Quentin Richardson	29	28	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.11	-12	17	-29	17.4	15.5	1.95	15.7	15.5	0.17
Chris Duhon	36	33	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	-0.11	-12	17	-29	16.7	15.7	1.10	14.7	16.1	-1.40
Glen Davis	37	38	-0.51	1.01	-1.53	-0.19	-11	16	-27	15.9	16.2	-0.28	14.4	16.4	-2.00
JJ Redick	43	43	-0.58	1.08	-1.65	-0.17	-14	19	-33	16.7	15.6	1.11	14.8	16.2	-1.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	32	32	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-9	13	15.8	15.4	0.44	16.9	15.6	1.31
Stephen Jackson	36	37	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-9	13	15.7	15.4	0.31	16.2	16.0	0.22
Jon Brockman	11	11	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-5	5	16.2	15.5	0.71	16.1	16.1	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	31	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-3	1	16.3	15.2	1.11	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Shaun Livingston	32	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-1	-3	16.4	15.1	1.30	15.0	16.6	-1.60
Mike Dunleavy	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-4	3	15.1	16.4	-1.30	16.6	15.0	1.60
Ersan Ilyasova	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-2	-1	15.2	16.3	-1.11	16.4	15.4	0.98
Drew Gooden	80	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	15.5	16.2	-0.71	16.1	16.1	-0.00
Carlos Delfino	55	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	4	-13	15.4	15.7	-0.31	16.0	16.2	-0.22
Brandon Jennings	59	59	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.45	-9	4	-13	15.4	15.8	-0.44	15.6	16.9	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.58,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.8,0.46,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.57,0.63,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.63,0.32,0.01,0	90.7%
CHI 90, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.63,0.41,0.26,0	89.3%
POR 103, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.53,0.46,0.06,0.26,0	89.1%