NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	8.2 [199]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +46.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	8.7 [138]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -18.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.47	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.47	0.14	0.35	0.02	20	69%	0.59	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Martell Webster	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.00	10	71%	0.26	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
James Jones	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.12	0.00	4	78%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	15	66%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	15	61%	0.19	5	-0.21	3	67%	-0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.00	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	7	0%	-0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.23,0.29	0.29	0.08	0.20	-0.01	20	56%	0.31	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.06
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.00	10	68%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	7	75%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Awvee Storey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	7	65%	0.07	5	-0.16	9	78%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.15	-0.00	18	44%	-0.07	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	26.8	15.5	22.5	2.4	32.4	129.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +82.4%

MIL -19.3%

POR +11.5%

MIL -27.0%

POR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIL	NBA	POR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.6	15.4	114.4	111.0	105.7
season	16.7	15.8		105.5	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.4		110.7	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.8	16.0	15.3	17.9	16.3
MIL	14.8	16.8	17.5	13.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	67	1.02	-0.52	1.55	0.58	15	-13	28	16.1	16.6	-0.42	16.0	14.5	1.46
Martell Webster	63	66	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.42	19	-17	36	15.4	18.3	-2.86	16.5	13.1	3.44
Steve Blake	68	68	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.54	14	-12	26	16.2	16.5	-0.26	16.4	13.2	3.15
Brandon Roy	80	83	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.40	9	-7	16	16.2	16.8	-0.61	15.7	14.5	1.17
James Jones	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.52	-8	10	-18	17.4	15.3	2.13	13.5	17.3	-3.84
Channing Frye	8	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	3	-4	14.2	16.5	-2.20	15.4	15.6	-0.14
Joel Przybilla	60	59	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	8	-14	17.2	14.4	2.73	15.5	15.7	-0.13
Travis Outlaw	33	31	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	-0.15	-13	15	-28	15.5	16.7	-1.17	15.6	15.5	0.11
Jarrett Jack	32	31	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	-0.05	-19	21	-40	16.6	16.1	0.48	13.5	16.6	-3.07

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	26	26	0.43	-0.93	1.35	0.10	11	-13	24	13.8	16.3	-2.42	19.1	15.1	3.97
Awvee Storey	14	13	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-8	14	13.7	15.9	-2.19	16.9	16.1	0.78
Bobby Simmons	40	40	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.16	7	-9	16	15.8	15.4	0.36	16.4	16.1	0.26
Charlie Villanueva	54	53	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.12	-3	1	-4	15.9	15.1	0.74	16.8	15.5	1.31
Charlie Bell	54	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.48	7	-9	16	15.1	16.3	-1.22	16.2	16.3	-0.05
Royal Ivey	55	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	6	-14	15.6	15.5	0.07	16.7	15.5	1.21
Desmond Mason	86	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	2	-6	15.5	16.4	-0.88	15.9	22.6	-6.72
Andrew Bogut	65	64	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.55	-13	11	-24	16.3	13.8	2.42	15.1	19.1	-3.97
Michael Redd	61	60	-0.99	0.49	-1.49	-0.61	-13	11	-24	16.1	14.5	1.55	15.6	17.5	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.53,0.46,0.06,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.61,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	91.1%
IND 103, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.54,0.37,0.23,0.05,0	90.8%
MIA 89, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.38,0.23,0.1,0,0	90.5%