NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	7.1 [426]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +12.6%
Detroit Pistons	78		Comeback	3.2 [210]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -24.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	10	73%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	21	46%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.08	-0.01	10	44%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.05
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.07	0.03	18	67%	0.13	4	-0.18	10	70%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	7	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	0.00	11	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	14	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.08	-0.04	11	59%	0.07	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	19	43%	-0.09	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	11	31%	-0.19	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.08	0.00	9	20%	-0.16	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.3	29.6	19.7	27.0	3.4	34.5	144.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.6%

MIA +10.5%

DET -16.1%

MIA +3.6%

MIA +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	18.3	15.5	104.7	90.7	104.0
season	15.7	16.7		107.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	17.4	15.3	14.9	15.3
DET	17.3	18.6	16.8	20.8	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	62	64	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.22	17	-6	23	15.0	16.3	-1.32	17.2	21.5	-4.27
Christian Laettner	39	40	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-3	17	14.2	16.3	-2.15	17.6	18.9	-1.26
Shaquille O'Neal	65	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.33	12	-1	13	15.7	14.0	1.69	17.3	21.6	-4.27
Dwyane Wade	74	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.12	18	-7	25	15.2	16.2	-0.97	18.3	18.4	-0.13
Eddie Jones	73	73	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	1	9	15.2	16.4	-1.25	17.4	23.6	-6.23
Michael Doleac	20	20	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.15	-1	12	-13	14.0	15.7	-1.69	21.6	17.3	4.27
Udonis Haslem	46	46	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	14	-17	16.3	14.2	2.15	18.9	17.6	1.26
Rasual Butler	23	22	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	17	-23	16.3	15.0	1.32	21.5	17.2	4.27
Keyon Dooling	23	22	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	17	-23	16.3	15.0	1.32	21.5	17.2	4.27

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	28	29	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.08	5	-16	21	22.1	16.5	5.66	15.3	15.4	-0.05
Antonio McDyess	36	38	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-12	13	20.9	16.5	4.46	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Smush Parker	8	8	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-15	19	18.6	18.3	0.33	18.1	15.1	3.07
Elden Campbell	5	5	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-15	19	17.6	18.4	-0.77	11.2	15.6	-4.40
Tayshaun Prince	76	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	-1	-9	17.8	22.5	-4.72	15.3	15.6	-0.28
Richard Hamilton	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	2	-15	18.3	18.8	-0.54	15.1	17.1	-1.99
Ben Wallace	67	65	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.27	-11	0	-11	17.4	21.6	-4.18	16.0	13.1	2.87
Rasheed Wallace	64	62	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.18	-16	5	-21	17.9	19.6	-1.70	15.1	15.9	-0.78
Chauncey Billups	70	70	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.24	-19	8	-27	17.4	22.2	-4.82	15.3	15.4	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.38,0.23,0.1,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.28,0.23,0.1,0	92.2%
TOR 103, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.16,0.14,0.18,0	92.0%
PHI 82, MIL 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.04,0	91.8%