NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	8.9 [116]		MVP	John Starks (NYK): +17.3%
New York Knicks	89		Comeback	4.3 [317]		LVP	Allan Houston (NYK): -33.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.14	0.11	0.06	0.02	33	58%	0.18	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.07
Ron Harper	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.08	-0.01	13	54%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.05
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Burrell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.06	0.05	-0.09	0.02	5	71%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Randy Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	2	33%	-0.03	4	-0.12	2	0%	-0.03
Luc Longley	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.00	16	31%	-0.13	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17	0.17	-0.01	0.18	0.00	10	50%	0.21	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	9	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	12	54%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Buck Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.02	10	52%	-0.10	2	-0.01	7	86%	-0.06
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.31	-0.31	-0.02	-0.29	0.00	7	44%	-0.31	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Allan Houston	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.13,-0.23,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.08	-0.24	0.02	17	53%	-0.05	6	-0.28	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.5	30.9	16.7	33.7	1.8	32.2	143.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +40.5%

NYK -0.8%

CHI +0.3%

CHI +15.4%

NYK -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NYK	NBA	CHI	NYK	NBA
this game	17.2	15.1	15.6	101.1	100.0	102.5
season	16.2	15.7		105.8	100.4
opponent	16.3	15.8		98.6	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.3	19.9	15.0	17.1	17.2
NYK	14.6	15.3	14.4	16.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	41	41	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.59	5	-4	9	16.5	17.9	-1.39	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Steve Kerr	62	63	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.50	8	-7	15	17.3	17.2	0.07	15.2	15.0	0.12
Michael Jordan	79	79	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.52	6	-5	11	16.5	22.9	-6.38	14.6	19.2	-4.59
Luc Longley	72	71	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.53	4	-3	7	16.5	20.2	-3.63	14.6	17.3	-2.70
Ron Harper	58	55	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.54	-3	4	-7	18.5	14.9	3.58	16.3	13.3	2.96
Randy Brown	15	16	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.09	-2	3	-5	20.4	16.6	3.81	18.9	14.3	4.57
Jud Buechler	24	24	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	4	-7	15.4	17.9	-2.49	11.9	16.3	-4.45
Jason Caffey	23	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.01	-7	8	-15	20.3	16.2	4.20	16.6	14.6	1.94
Dennis Rodman	71	73	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.15	-3	4	-7	17.1	17.9	-0.82	15.4	13.7	1.67

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	45	45	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.19	2	-3	5	15.8	14.5	1.28	18.1	16.3	1.77
Buck Williams	29	28	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.05	7	-8	15	15.9	14.8	1.10	19.1	16.4	2.73
Chris Dudley	35	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.10	-5	4	-9	15.7	14.8	0.88	16.3	17.8	-1.48
Charlie Ward	38	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	2	-5	14.7	15.4	-0.67	16.4	17.9	-1.52
Chris Childs	51	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-3	5	15.4	14.7	0.67	17.9	16.4	1.52
Allan Houston	60	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-3	5	14.6	16.2	-1.61	17.4	16.9	0.50
Charles Oakley	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.46	0	-1	1	14.5	19.0	-4.48	16.4	22.6	-6.18
Larry Johnson	71	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.49	-3	2	-5	14.8	16.4	-1.66	17.2	17.5	-0.36
John Starks	39	39	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.68	-7	6	-13	16.0	14.5	1.51	17.2	17.3	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.63,0.41,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 93, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.6,0.71,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.64,0.23,0.16,0	92.3%
POR 103, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.52,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.35,0.08,0	91.9%
CLE 92, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.45,0.02,0	91.9%