NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	92		Excitement	7.9 [219]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +20.8%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	3.4 [170]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (SAC): -14.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.11	-0.05	0.02	19	61%	0.15	2	-0.11	8	50%	-0.06
Elliot Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	17	44%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	0.03	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	12	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	17	44%	0.01	4	-0.13	5	80%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.00	14	68%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.07	-0.01	7	72%	0.17	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.01	13	53%	0.17	2	-0.12	12	83%	0.03
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.04
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	20	43%	0.10	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	25.4	15.4	30.3	2.6	35.4	134.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +34.0%

SAC +21.9%

SAC +8.3%

POR -12.1%

POR -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.6	98.9	101.1	102.8
season	15.7	14.9		104.1	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		107.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.9	18.5	18.7	13.5	16.2
SAC	13.9	16.7	12.7	15.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elliot Williams	10	11	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-9	15	16.5	16.2	0.30	19.3	14.0	5.32
Kurt Thomas	35	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-5	7	16.5	16.1	0.45	15.0	14.3	0.72
Craig Smith	25	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-4	5	16.7	16.1	0.66	14.2	14.7	-0.55
Marcus Camby	48	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	2	-7	16.7	15.7	1.06	14.0	15.2	-1.29
Gerald Wallace	80	81	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.37	6	-9	15	15.4	21.3	-5.90	14.7	14.0	0.67
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	1	-5	16.1	16.7	-0.66	14.7	14.2	0.55
Wesley Matthews	75	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	1	-5	16.1	16.6	-0.46	14.7	14.2	0.48
Jamal Crawford	53	55	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	1	-5	16.1	16.4	-0.24	14.9	14.1	0.85
Raymond Felton	71	71	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.40	-13	10	-23	16.8	14.4	2.45	13.6	17.7	-4.13

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	62	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-10	23	13.8	16.1	-2.26	16.8	15.0	1.80
Tyreke Evans	79	79	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-6	15	14.4	15.7	-1.30	16.5	14.9	1.54
John Salmons	77	77	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.51	0	3	-3	13.9	17.4	-3.46	15.9	18.0	-2.13
Marcus Thornton	87	85	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	14.6	14.9	-0.31	15.8	21.1	-5.35
Charles Hayes	59	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	5	-7	15.3	13.4	1.83	14.9	18.3	-3.33
DeMarcus Cousins	25	26	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.06	5	-2	7	14.0	14.8	-0.84	19.8	14.8	5.01
Travis Outlaw	20	21	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	3	-3	14.1	14.7	-0.54	17.6	15.8	1.72
Isaiah Thomas	33	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	9	-15	15.7	14.0	1.73	15.9	16.4	-0.46
JJ Hickson	31	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.00	-8	11	-19	16.5	13.7	2.80	15.2	16.7	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.34,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.77,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 107, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.55,0.57,0.98,1	90.7%
LAL 103, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.73,1	90.7%
UTA 84, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.97,0.98,1	90.4%