NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	106		Excitement	6.3 [444]		MVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): +18.5%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.6 [147]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -15.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.09	0.01	19	60%	0.22	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Alec Burks	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	7	59%	0.09	1	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Gordon Hayward	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	13	59%	0.08	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Jeremy Evans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Favors	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	17	50%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.06	0.02	6	75%	0.18	0	0.00	12	100%	0.05
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	11	42%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	10	53%	-0.03	4	-0.10	10	60%	-0.04
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	16	41%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	15	49%	-0.02	5	-0.13	7	29%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	31.2	15.7	26.0	2.4	32.5	135.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +38.1%

DEN -0.5%

UTA +5.1%

UTA +12.8%

DEN -5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	12.9	15.6	107.1	100.0	102.8
season	15.8	14.5		104.0	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.1		104.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.2	14.3	17.1	16.1	16.6
DEN	12.1	14.0	12.9	12.7	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	47	46	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	-5	20	16.3	16.8	-0.45	13.3	12.5	0.81
Paul Millsap	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	3	4	17.3	15.0	2.26	13.2	12.2	1.06
Al Jefferson	77	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	2	6	16.6	16.3	0.36	13.0	12.6	0.41
Alec Burks	38	37	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-2	14	16.4	16.6	-0.22	13.1	12.8	0.21
CJ Miles	30	29	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	5	0	17.5	16.2	1.31	13.1	12.9	0.20
Gordon Hayward	69	67	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	5	0	16.2	17.5	-1.31	12.9	13.1	-0.20
Raja Bell	61	59	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.20	-2	12	-14	16.6	16.4	0.22	12.8	13.1	-0.21
Derrick Favors	18	15	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	7	-4	15.6	16.8	-1.15	12.5	13.0	-0.47
Enes Kanter	26	23	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	8	-6	15.2	17.1	-1.90	12.4	13.1	-0.70
Jeremy Evans	9	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	10	-10	16.4	16.6	-0.12	12.0	13.0	-1.03
Devin Harris	52	50	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.13	-5	15	-20	16.8	16.3	0.45	12.5	13.3	-0.81

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-8	6	11.8	13.2	-1.42	16.7	16.5	0.24
Kosta Koufos	4	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-10	10	9.0	13.1	-4.10	14.2	16.7	-2.40
Corey Brewer	42	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-8	6	11.6	13.9	-2.28	15.2	17.7	-2.47
Timofey Mozgov	33	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.01	-3	-7	4	13.3	12.7	0.53	18.0	15.7	2.28
Rudy Fernandez	19	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-4	-2	13.0	12.9	0.09	15.4	16.9	-1.49
Al Harrington	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	-7	4	13.0	12.8	0.19	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Andre Miller	41	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	1	-12	13.7	12.3	1.36	16.2	16.8	-0.59
Nene	70	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-6	2	13.3	12.0	1.27	16.6	16.5	0.10
Arron Afflalo	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-6	2	12.7	13.6	-0.96	16.9	15.8	1.07
Danilo Gallinari	59	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	13.4	12.2	1.24	16.7	16.4	0.26
Ty Lawson	72	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-4	-2	13.0	12.6	0.46	16.9	15.5	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 103, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
SAS 115, SAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
ORL 110, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.31,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%