NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	6.9 [450]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +37.9%
Dallas Mavericks	96		Comeback	1.1 [493]		LVP	Rodrigue Beaubois (DAL): -9.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.18	0.23	0.04	14	77%	0.38	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	60%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.08	0.10	-0.03	12	33%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	12	59%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Nene	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	9	45%	-0.01	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.01	14	70%	0.22	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.01	16	59%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	9	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	68%	0.14	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	1	12%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	12	46%	0.06	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	0.03	0.02	7	37%	-0.00	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	26.2	16.8	26.2	2.3	31.3	128.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.7%

DEN +3.5%

DEN +12.0%

DEN +6.8%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.4	15.5	111.8	104.3	105.7
season	14.3	15.7		110.7	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.8	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	16.6	15.3	18.0	15.7
DAL	17.5	13.4	15.4	15.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	-3	14	14.8	17.1	-2.27	17.1	12.8	4.27
J.R. Smith	56	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	3	2	16.7	14.3	2.35	14.1	17.4	-3.32
Nene	71	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	5	-2	15.5	16.7	-1.23	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Ty Lawson	53	54	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	-1	10	15.5	16.0	-0.54	16.3	14.1	2.24
Danilo Gallinari	60	59	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	4	0	15.4	16.4	-0.96	15.7	14.8	0.89
Raymond Felton	62	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	8	-8	16.5	14.2	2.37	14.3	17.5	-3.16
Al Harrington	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	1	6	16.8	15.1	1.73	14.5	16.0	-1.56
Kenyon Martin	70	68	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	7	-6	15.2	17.3	-2.08	15.9	13.9	2.00

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	40	40	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-12	16	15.6	15.2	0.41	15.1	16.2	-1.13
Brian Cardinal	4	4	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-9	10	14.0	15.5	-1.45	12.5	15.9	-3.39
DeShawn Stevenson	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	20.4	14.8	5.60	13.9	16.0	-2.06
Ian Mahinmi	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-8	8	14.1	16.0	-1.92	17.0	15.1	1.86
Jason Terry	60	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-9	10	14.5	17.1	-2.66	16.3	14.7	1.51
Shawn Marion	57	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-1	-6	16.1	14.2	1.97	15.6	16.0	-0.45
Rodrigue Beaubois	39	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	1	-10	14.9	15.8	-0.90	15.3	16.0	-0.69
Brendan Haywood	61	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	15.8	14.5	1.27	15.1	17.0	-1.84
Jose Juan Barea	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-4	0	15.7	14.9	0.78	16.0	15.3	0.67
Corey Brewer	40	38	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	1	-10	14.7	15.9	-1.13	15.9	15.6	0.35
Dirk Nowitzki	64	63	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	3	-14	15.5	15.2	0.25	16.2	14.8	1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.05,0.11,0.29,0.15,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0	92.6%
MEM 82, HOU 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.32,0.27,0	92.3%
ORL 107, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.39,0.23,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.09,0	92.1%