NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	7.6 [287]		MVP	Larry Robinson (ATL): +13.9%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	1.2 [998]		LVP	Jim Jackson (ATL): -34.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	11	73%	0.16	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.05	-0.06	0.08	-0.04	16	57%	0.20	6	-0.15	5	100%	0.03
Bo Outlaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	9	61%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	59%	0.07	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.04	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.06
Troy Hudson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	61%	0.06	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.01
Don Reid	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.01	7	57%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	22	55%	0.14	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Matt Maloney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	14	63%	0.04	1	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.02	-0.00	9	37%	0.03	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21	-0.21	-0.18	-0.05	-0.02	12	45%	-0.12	4	-0.09	18	50%	-0.08
Jim Jackson	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.34	-0.34	-0.14	-0.22	-0.02	15	32%	-0.29	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.7	33.4	14.7	29.1	2.5	33.2	142.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.9%

ORL +19.4%

ATL -14.9%

ATL -5.4%

ORL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	15.5	112.6	107.2	100.9
season	14.6	15.4		101.6	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.8		101.6	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	11.9	16.5	15.3	14.1
ATL	14.4	15.6	17.0	16.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	78	80	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.39	9	-6	15	14.3	13.5	0.74	15.6	16.8	-1.19
Don Reid	52	53	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-6	15	13.2	15.3	-2.13	16.2	15.5	0.72
Bo Outlaw	77	78	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	3	-3	14.4	13.0	1.40	15.6	16.7	-1.04
Troy Hudson	33	33	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.40	-3	6	-9	13.7	14.4	-0.63	16.5	15.5	1.06
John Amaechi	51	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-1	5	14.8	13.4	1.44	15.7	16.0	-0.29
Pat Garrity	57	59	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	7	-11	14.9	12.9	2.03	15.8	15.9	-0.17
Mike Miller	75	77	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	1	1	14.1	14.4	-0.40	15.8	15.9	-0.13
Monty Williams	52	53	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.15	-2	5	-7	13.3	15.1	-1.75	15.9	15.7	0.22

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Maloney	5	4	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	1	-5	18.4	15.7	2.69	12.0	14.2	-2.23
Roshown McLeod	74	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.32	7	-10	17	15.5	17.0	-1.51	13.2	16.9	-3.66
Hanno Mottola	42	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.11	-8	5	-13	15.5	16.1	-0.53	14.2	14.1	0.06
Larry Robinson	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.43	10	-13	23	16.0	15.7	0.23	14.3	14.0	0.32
DerMarr Johnson	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	5	-13	14.8	16.0	-1.16	14.1	14.1	-0.05
Anthony Johnson	29	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	1	-5	16.4	15.6	0.76	16.2	13.2	3.06
Jason Terry	63	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-8	13	15.4	16.7	-1.28	13.2	15.7	-2.49
Chris Crawford	65	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.40	5	-8	13	16.6	14.4	2.19	14.5	13.4	1.13
Alan Henderson	85	85	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	0	-3	15.6	17.2	-1.60	14.3	13.0	1.27
Jim Jackson	70	70	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.26	-15	12	-27	16.1	15.3	0.76	14.4	13.3	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.39,0.23,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.42,0.19,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%
DAL 90, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.14,0.04,0.03,0,0,0	92.9%
NYK 106, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%