NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	90		Excitement	5.1 [814]		MVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): +30.3%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	1.2 [398]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (NOH): -8.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	9	85%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	10	77%	0.19	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Jason Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	14	46%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	5	8%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.12	-0.02	10	88%	0.35	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	-0.06	0.10	-0.03	16	41%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	6	93%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	17	49%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.0	15.5	21.4	2.5	34.4	128.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +41.3%

TOR +0.1%

NOH -1.3%

TOR +4.3%

TOR +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	TOR	NBA	NOH	TOR	NBA
this game	16.7	16.4	15.5	105.9	107.9	105.7
season	16.2	15.1		104.6	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.9		111.2	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.1	16.5	17.1	17.1	16.7
TOR	14.6	16.2	16.4	18.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Smith	13	13	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-9	12	16.5	16.7	-0.26	16.5	16.4	0.04
Quincy Pondexter	14	14	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	18.1	16.4	1.75	17.4	16.3	1.10
Marco Belinelli	40	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.43	13	-19	32	16.8	16.6	0.22	18.1	14.9	3.18
Carl Landry	46	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-9	12	18.2	14.8	3.39	17.8	14.8	2.96
Emeka Okafor	41	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	0	-6	15.7	17.6	-1.84	15.5	17.3	-1.77
Jarrett Jack	47	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-9	12	16.4	17.0	-0.62	17.4	15.3	2.06
Willie Green	45	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	6	-18	17.3	15.9	1.38	16.1	16.8	-0.75
Chris Paul	69	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	1	-8	16.1	19.1	-3.01	16.1	17.6	-1.48
Trevor Ariza	40	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.08	-17	11	-28	16.6	16.7	-0.11	14.3	18.4	-4.11
David West	70	73	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	6	-18	16.3	18.7	-2.41	16.1	18.1	-1.99

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	66	64	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.14	25	-19	44	15.7	18.7	-3.00	16.6	17.0	-0.36
Jose Calderon	72	69	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-12	30	15.7	19.4	-3.69	16.3	18.1	-1.78
Amir Johnson	72	68	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-4	14	15.6	19.9	-4.34	15.9	19.6	-3.71
Andrea Bargnani	61	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	-5	16	16.6	16.1	0.52	17.3	15.4	1.92
James Johnson	41	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	2	2	15.6	17.1	-1.56	16.2	17.1	-0.96
Sonny Weems	37	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	11	-16	17.2	15.9	1.35	16.6	16.7	-0.11
Leandro Barbosa	34	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.33	-12	18	-30	18.1	15.4	2.69	17.6	16.2	1.41
Ed Davis	45	44	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.24	-9	15	-24	17.5	15.3	2.24	17.0	16.3	0.71
Jerryd Bayless	17	16	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	18	-30	19.4	15.7	3.69	18.1	16.3	1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.72,0.79,0.75,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.89,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 75, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.96,1,1,1	94.1%
HOU 89, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.7%
UTA 77, SEA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.98,1	93.7%