NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	75		Excitement	5.1 [781]		MVP	Tony Massenburg (VAN): +9.6%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	1.2 [570]		LVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): -33.5%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	10	64%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Michael Dickerson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	11	45%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.01	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	16	41%	-0.12	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.27	-0.12	-0.06	17	24%	-0.17	7	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	12	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	15	56%	0.03	6	-0.11	9	67%	-0.03
Bryce Drew	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	11	46%	-0.02	5	-0.11	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	30.5	16.6	26.0	2.0	29.3	129.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +31.2%

CHI +4.2%

CHI +12.8%

CHI +6.4%

VAN -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	CHI	NBA	VAN	CHI	NBA
this game	14.2	16.2	15.5	78.9	95.7	100.9
season	15.6	16.4		97.4	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		104.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	13.2	14.8	13.5	15.7	14.2
CHI	16.2	14.5	16.5	17.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-13	11	14.4	14.2	0.18	12.7	16.7	-3.97
Bryant Reeves	32	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-10	5	13.8	14.4	-0.60	17.4	15.7	1.65
Erick Strickland	56	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-10	5	14.3	14.1	0.19	16.2	16.4	-0.22
Stromile Swift	17	16	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-8	1	15.9	13.9	2.07	14.0	16.7	-2.71
Grant Long	67	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-8	1	14.0	14.9	-0.92	17.1	14.2	2.84
Tony Massenburg	31	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	-6	-3	14.3	14.2	0.02	13.5	17.6	-4.12
Michael Dickerson	87	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-5	-5	14.3	13.4	0.95	16.6	11.7	4.89
Mike Bibby	91	90	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.05	-15	0	-15	14.3	14.0	0.25	16.3	15.5	0.78
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	84	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	0	-15	14.1	15.4	-1.27	16.7	12.8	3.88

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	69	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.08	22	-7	29	17.2	13.6	3.55	14.0	14.9	-0.88
Fred Hoiberg	69	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-5	25	16.2	16.5	-0.32	14.3	14.1	0.23
Elton Brand	74	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-4	23	16.0	17.0	-0.96	13.8	15.8	-2.04
Metta World Peace	78	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	2	11	16.4	15.6	0.75	14.5	13.1	1.42
Brad Miller	61	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	2	11	16.8	15.3	1.50	14.2	14.3	-0.11
Marcus Fizer	53	52	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	17	-19	15.9	16.7	-0.73	14.9	13.4	1.46
Ron Mercer	29	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	10	-5	16.1	16.3	-0.25	13.7	14.5	-0.79
Jamal Crawford	25	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	22	-29	13.6	17.2	-3.55	14.9	14.0	0.88
Corey Benjamin	12	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.16	-8	23	-31	16.3	16.2	0.10	13.7	14.3	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.74,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.97,0.96,1,1	95.3%
UTA 77, SEA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.98,1	94.5%
SAS 91, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.95,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,1	94.4%