NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	5.8 [662]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +11.7%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	1.1 [593]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -13.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	12	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	59%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.04	19	59%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.04	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	15	33%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	10	40%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	9	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	11	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	13	51%	0.12	3	-0.09	13	69%	0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	14	39%	0.04	3	-0.11	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	29.3	17.5	25.6	3.0	36.3	136.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +29.9%

CHI +19.0%

CHI +11.7%

SAS -14.2%

CHI +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	14.8	91.9	96.9	107.7
season	15.4	15.1		110.1	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.8		105.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	14.1	14.5	15.6	15.0
CHI	15.1	12.1	13.7	16.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	43	42	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.29	12	-16	28	13.9	15.9	-1.97	16.0	12.9	3.04
Manu Ginobili	41	39	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.17	7	-11	18	13.2	16.3	-3.07	14.3	14.2	0.07
Kyle Anderson	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-7	10	6.0	15.1	-9.11	1.0	14.4	-13.35
Jonathon Simmons	32	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-10	16	13.1	15.9	-2.85	13.6	14.5	-0.97
Patty Mills	53	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.28	7	-11	18	13.1	17.3	-4.19	14.7	13.7	0.95
Dewayne Dedmon	27	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-5	6	14.2	15.3	-1.10	14.2	14.2	-0.00
Pau Gasol	65	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	0	-4	15.8	13.6	2.18	13.1	16.2	-3.04
Tony Parker	46	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	7	-18	17.3	13.1	4.19	13.7	14.7	-0.95
Danny Green	50	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.12	-13	9	-22	16.4	13.6	2.75	14.1	14.3	-0.15
Kawhi Leonard	75	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	5	-14	15.9	12.2	3.71	14.5	13.2	1.30
LaMarcus Aldridge	62	62	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.07	-19	15	-34	15.5	14.2	1.28	14.4	14.0	0.38

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	76	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-2	8	14.3	13.8	0.57	15.8	12.5	3.31
Rajon Rondo	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	-4	12	14.2	14.2	0.02	15.1	14.8	0.29
Robin Lopez	55	55	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	-4	12	14.5	13.9	0.59	15.9	13.9	1.96
Taj Gibson	57	57	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	-1	6	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.8	14.0	1.85
Doug McDermott	53	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	-1	6	13.6	15.0	-1.37	14.8	15.3	-0.54
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.35	-4	8	-12	14.7	13.0	1.70	14.8	15.5	-0.70
Nikola Mirotic	46	47	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.21	-4	8	-12	14.1	14.3	-0.20	14.0	16.0	-2.02
Cristiano Felicio	38	39	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.12	-1	5	-6	14.3	14.2	0.12	13.9	15.7	-1.81
Isaiah Canaan	22	23	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.11	-3	7	-10	13.7	14.4	-0.63	13.4	15.5	-2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.95,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 96, SEA 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.93,1,1,1	95.5%
MIL 92, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.98,1,1	95.1%
WAS 101, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.9,1	95.1%