NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	9.9 [63]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +38.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	100.0 [22]		LVP	Raymond Felton (DEN): -23.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.49,0.34	0.06	0.27	-0.01	17	53%	0.34	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.13	0.01	6	57%	0.19	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	16	61%	0.16	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,-0.04	0.16	-0.20	0.01	14	67%	-0.00	1	-0.04	17	88%	0.05
Ty Lawson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	8	33%	-0.08	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	-0.10	-0.16	-0.04	12	27%	-0.08	1	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.09	0.28	-0.01	14	60%	0.39	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.25	0.25	0.04	0.20	-0.00	20	52%	0.28	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.12
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.01	15	50%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.09
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.02	12	60%	0.16	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Armon Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	42%	-0.00	4	-0.08	1	0%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.13	0.00	17	47%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	2.6	29.2	17.8	26.0	2.8	36.0	1.6	18.1	162.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.3%

POR +4.9%

DEN -22.2%

POR +21.2%

POR +12.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.1	16.2	15.5	101.0	101.9	105.7
season	14.3	16.5		110.7	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	13.5	16.5	11.3	13.8	17.0	14.1
POR	16.5	14.8	20.0	13.9	16.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	11	13	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-8	15	17.0	13.7	3.27	14.5	16.4	-1.91
J.R. Smith	40	38	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	0	-1	13.8	14.2	-0.45	14.9	17.0	-2.10
Ty Lawson	68	68	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-2	3	13.7	14.8	-1.09	16.8	15.2	1.58
Al Harrington	31	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	2	-5	13.4	14.4	-0.93	14.6	16.9	-2.34
Arron Afflalo	75	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-5	9	14.2	13.8	0.43	16.7	15.0	1.76
Wilson Chandler	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	2	-5	14.2	13.7	0.55	16.9	14.6	2.34
Nene	79	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.41	-5	4	-9	14.1	13.9	0.25	16.7	14.9	1.80
Danilo Gallinari	81	82	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.67	0	-1	1	13.7	15.2	-1.52	16.6	14.7	1.94
Raymond Felton	68	68	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.53	-5	4	-9	14.5	13.4	1.12	15.1	18.2	-3.14

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	49	48	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.58	6	-5	11	15.4	16.9	-1.46	14.8	13.5	1.36
Andre Miller	83	84	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-5	11	16.2	16.1	0.09	14.2	13.8	0.39
LaMarcus Aldridge	100	101	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.45	4	-3	7	16.3	13.6	2.74	14.0	17.0	-3.04
Rudy Fernandez	89	89	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	-3	7	16.3	15.9	0.39	14.1	14.2	-0.13
Wesley Matthews	99	100	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.46	-3	4	-7	16.3	14.3	1.99	13.7	22.0	-8.32
Nicolas Batum	72	71	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	1	-1	16.6	15.4	1.15	14.5	13.3	1.20
Armon Johnson	2	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	3	-5	9.0	16.3	-7.35	22.0	14.0	8.00
Luke Babbitt	14	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	5	-9	14.6	16.5	-1.81	12.7	14.3	-1.64
Patty Mills	17	16	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.03	-6	7	-13	17.2	16.0	1.22	13.9	14.1	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.28,0.15,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.54,0.55,0.79,0.69,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 90, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.54,0.81,0.78,0.57,0.27,1	90.2%
PHX 117, UTA 120	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.46,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.58,1	87.8%
DAL 118, MIA 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.4,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.27,0.46,0.39,0.57,0.69,0.42,1	87.7%