NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	118		Excitement	11.9 [12]		MVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): +101.1%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	35.2 [41]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -30.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.25	0.09	0.16	-0.00	14	67%	0.39	1	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25	0.12	0.13	0.00	23	65%	0.31	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	65%	0.03	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.07
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	20	52%	-0.02	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.03
Antoine Walker	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	9	15%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31	-0.07	-0.21	0.02	16	51%	-0.10	5	-0.21	3	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,0.04,0.13,0.13,1.01	1.01	0.12	0.90	0.01	15	65%	1.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	14	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.08
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	60%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Rasual Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	17	57%	0.07	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	7	37%	-0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.28	-0.28	-0.03	-0.24	0.01	18	52%	-0.25	1	-0.03	14	71%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.5	3.8	31.2	17.4	29.3	2.8	37.2	2.4	19.7	170.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	2.0	17.4	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.1%

MIA +19.0%

DAL -44.5%

MIA +16.2%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	16.4	15.7	110.3	113.3	100.5
season	14.6	16.2		109.2	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.8	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	12.9	12.9	13.5	15.0	14.6	13.6
MIA	17.1	13.3	18.6	17.0	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	33	35	0.96	-1.46	2.42	0.52	15	-16	31	13.1	13.8	-0.78	18.2	15.5	2.70
Antawn Jamison	64	63	0.62	-1.12	1.73	0.32	10	-11	21	13.6	13.5	0.11	16.4	16.5	-0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	86	86	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.25	7	-8	15	13.2	15.2	-1.98	17.0	14.1	2.90
Josh Howard	36	35	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.20	-4	3	-7	12.7	14.0	-1.28	15.0	17.1	-2.14
Eduardo Najera	10	11	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.12	-3	2	-5	11.2	13.8	-2.65	12.1	16.9	-4.85
Scott Williams	15	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	7	-15	11.9	13.9	-1.94	15.6	16.5	-0.91
Marquis Daniels	95	93	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.55	7	-8	15	13.5	14.0	-0.45	17.0	12.1	4.91
Steve Nash	89	86	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	4	-9	13.8	12.8	0.92	16.1	17.8	-1.73
Shawn Bradley	44	42	-1.44	0.94	-2.39	-1.27	-6	5	-11	15.0	12.6	2.38	16.7	16.3	0.44
Antoine Walker	53	51	-1.57	1.07	-2.64	-1.07	-17	16	-33	14.5	12.7	1.77	15.6	17.2	-1.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	64	65	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.64	5	-4	9	16.8	15.8	0.98	13.9	13.1	0.79
Caron Butler	69	72	0.71	-0.21	0.91	1.03	-11	12	-23	17.4	14.5	2.98	13.6	13.5	0.08
Lamar Odom	102	104	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.49	4	-3	7	16.4	18.7	-2.30	13.6	15.0	-1.44
Rafer Alston	65	65	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.40	2	-1	3	15.6	17.8	-2.26	13.6	13.5	0.08
Rasual Butler	12	12	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.08	8	-7	15	12.1	17.0	-4.91	14.0	13.5	0.45
Eddie Jones	77	78	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	2	-3	16.9	15.0	1.90	13.6	13.7	-0.08
Malik Allen	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	21.0	16.0	5.00	12.6	13.7	-1.14
Udonis Haslem	35	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.15	-3	4	-7	14.7	17.3	-2.53	13.4	13.7	-0.27
Dwyane Wade	83	84	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.48	3	-2	5	16.3	16.8	-0.44	13.4	14.3	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.4,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.27,0.46,0.39,0.57,0.69,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, LAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.09,0.08,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.58,1	89.7%
MIN 116, LAC 120	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.63,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.02,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.41,1	89.2%
ORL 98, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.24,0.16,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.84,0.73,1	89.0%