NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	94		Excitement	7.5 [334]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +35.1%
Golden State Warriors	100		Comeback	1.4 [784]		LVP	Dorell Wright (GSW): -9.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.12	0.01	6	67%	0.18	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	21	59%	0.19	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.07
James Harden	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	89%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	87%	0.12	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	67%	0.04	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	14	57%	0.11	6	-0.19	9	78%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.27	0.01	25	61%	0.49	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	18	62%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.14	0.00	7	50%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	22	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.02	-0.01	16	29%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.0	31.3	18.0	22.2	3.7	35.2	139.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +10.8%

OKC -27.9%

GSW +31.6%

GSW +32.6%

GSW +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	GSW	NBA	OKC	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	16.8	15.5	105.6	111.1	105.7
season	15.0	14.8		108.8	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.6		109.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.1	12.6	17.5	15.7	15.4
GSW	15.9	19.6	15.3	16.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	55	55	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.15	8	-14	22	14.4	17.0	-2.61	16.8	16.6	0.21
Eric Maynor	34	33	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.16	-3	-3	0	16.1	15.0	1.14	14.9	17.8	-2.87
Daequan Cook	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-5	4	15.0	15.5	-0.46	20.0	16.4	3.56
James Harden	28	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-4	2	16.2	15.0	1.22	15.7	17.2	-1.52
Serge Ibaka	38	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-7	8	15.4	15.4	0.01	16.3	17.1	-0.75
Nenad Krstic	38	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	0	-6	15.3	15.5	-0.22	17.3	16.4	0.88
Nick Collison	49	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.41	-1	-5	4	15.9	14.8	1.12	16.4	17.3	-0.88
Thabo Sefolosha	65	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	4	-14	15.7	14.6	1.14	16.7	16.9	-0.15
Russell Westbrook	56	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	-1	-4	14.7	16.6	-1.84	17.6	15.2	2.43
Kevin Durant	74	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	5	-16	15.5	14.8	0.74	17.1	14.9	2.27

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	70	71	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.32	18	-12	30	16.5	17.5	-1.02	15.7	14.2	1.50
Stephen Curry	71	70	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.31	17	-11	28	16.6	17.4	-0.78	15.9	13.5	2.40
David Lee	85	84	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	16.0	28.8	-12.75	15.7	10.0	5.74
Monta Ellis	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	4	-2	16.4	25.2	-8.89	15.4	15.3	0.09
Reggie Williams	34	33	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	5	-4	17.5	16.3	1.20	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Andris Biedrins	37	38	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.08	-2	8	-10	17.4	16.3	1.10	15.7	15.2	0.56
Ekpe Udoh	51	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	10	-14	17.7	15.5	2.15	15.1	15.8	-0.79
Vladimir Radmanovic	16	14	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.00	-11	17	-28	18.3	16.4	1.89	13.0	15.9	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.9,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, HOU 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.71,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.91,1	92.6%
GSW 106, MIA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.73,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,1	92.5%
NJN 96, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.6,0.46,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.88,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.84,1	91.8%