NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	5.9 [654]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +15.9%
Detroit Pistons	89		Comeback	1.7 [905]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -10.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	6	83%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.01	10	54%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	8	90%	0.19	6	-0.12	5	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	15	58%	0.12	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Gary Neal	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	7	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	13	72%	0.23	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	9	64%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	13	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	15	34%	-0.10	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	30.6	17.7	23.2	2.6	32.0	133.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +68.6%

DET -7.1%

SAS +9.1%

DET -20.4%

DET -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	15.7	17.6	15.5	116.3	102.3	105.7
season	15.5	16.7		109.3	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.6	17.6	14.0	18.2	15.7
DET	15.8	18.4	20.3	16.1	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	57	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	1	9	16.0	15.1	0.90	17.2	18.3	-1.09
Tony Parker	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-1	13	15.6	16.0	-0.43	19.0	13.7	5.37
Antonio McDyess	40	40	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	2	7	14.8	16.5	-1.70	18.4	16.9	1.52
Manu Ginobili	53	53	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	6	-1	16.5	14.5	1.93	17.2	18.2	-1.03
Matt Bonner	24	25	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	5	1	17.1	15.2	1.93	15.8	18.3	-2.46
Tim Duncan	46	48	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	3	5	16.0	15.4	0.58	19.2	15.5	3.70
Richard Jefferson	44	43	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	7	-3	16.2	15.3	0.92	17.0	18.1	-1.14
Chris Quinn	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	10	-9	16.5	15.7	0.79	6.0	17.8	-11.82
Steve Novak	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	10	-9	16.5	15.7	0.79	6.0	17.8	-11.82
Tiago Splitter	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	10	-9	16.5	15.7	0.79	6.0	17.8	-11.82
Gary Neal	23	24	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	12	-13	15.1	16.0	-0.82	14.6	18.7	-4.10
DeJuan Blair	54	54	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.09	-5	16	-21	15.1	16.7	-1.62	17.3	17.9	-0.58

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	20	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-13	15	17.6	17.5	0.13	17.7	15.1	2.56
Austin Daye	51	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-11	11	16.4	19.2	-2.80	17.3	13.7	3.56
Will Bynum	42	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.10	-1	-10	9	16.3	18.8	-2.49	17.9	13.7	4.19
Charlie Villanueva	22	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-11	11	18.1	17.4	0.78	17.8	15.1	2.75
Rodney Stuckey	52	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-10	9	16.5	19.1	-2.52	16.5	14.7	1.83
Ben Gordon	43	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-3	-5	18.1	17.0	1.12	14.2	17.3	-3.14
Ben Wallace	42	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	18.0	17.1	0.96	13.8	17.5	-3.78
Tracy McGrady	45	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-1	-9	18.8	16.3	2.49	13.7	17.9	-4.19
Tayshaun Prince	52	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	4	-19	18.2	16.5	1.74	15.6	16.0	-0.43
Greg Monroe	66	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.07	-13	2	-15	17.8	16.8	0.98	15.1	17.7	-2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.21,0.31,0.35,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 103, HOU 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.18,0.04,0.07,0.02,0,0	94.0%
DET 101, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.22,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.7%
NYK 105, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.2,0.05,0.04,0.01,0	93.4%