NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	4.8 [902]		MVP	Anthony Morrow (NJN): +23.5%
New Jersey Nets	115		Comeback	1.3 [522]		LVP	Johan Petro (NJN): -3.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.20	0.03	0.06	22	65%	0.18	1	-0.02	13	85%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Nene	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	12	55%	0.10	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Melvin Ely	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.1,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	11	61%	0.17	7	-0.19	9	89%	0.04
Ty Lawson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.20	0.04	0.01	6	120%	0.23	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	18	66%	0.23	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	-0.01	0.02	14	68%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	68%	0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	60%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ben Uzoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Quinton Ross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	11	39%	0.04	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	32.2	15.4	27.4	2.5	32.9	137.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +26.0%

DEN -2.2%

NJN +5.8%

NJN +19.3%

NJN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NJN	NBA	DEN	NJN	NBA
this game	13.9	17.9	15.5	108.8	127.8	105.7
season	14.3	16.4		110.7	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	13.4	12.5	13.9	13.9
NJN	14.9	16.6	18.8	22.1	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Forbes	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	10.5	14.0	-3.48	19.0	17.9	1.08
Melvin Ely	29	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-15	14	14.9	13.4	1.51	18.5	17.7	0.85
Ty Lawson	39	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-13	10	12.9	14.7	-1.80	17.7	18.1	-0.41
J.R. Smith	46	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-9	2	14.0	13.8	0.11	19.5	16.4	3.18
Chauncey Billups	77	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-3	-10	13.5	15.9	-2.31	17.8	18.5	-0.71
Arron Afflalo	52	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	1	-18	15.0	12.5	2.52	17.9	18.0	-0.14
Kenyon Martin	63	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-6	-4	13.8	14.2	-0.45	17.1	19.9	-2.83
Nene	69	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-4	-8	13.9	13.8	0.11	17.9	18.1	-0.25
Carmelo Anthony	78	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.06	-18	2	-20	13.8	14.5	-0.65	17.8	18.8	-1.05

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brook Lopez	72	72	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.05	22	-6	28	17.8	18.5	-0.69	14.1	13.2	0.87
Travis Outlaw	67	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-5	26	18.7	15.8	2.85	13.8	14.2	-0.37
Anthony Morrow	56	56	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	4	8	18.6	16.9	1.75	13.3	14.8	-1.46
Devin Harris	67	67	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.05	11	5	6	17.7	18.7	-1.07	14.3	12.8	1.45
Kris Humphries	51	48	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	9	-2	18.8	16.8	2.03	14.2	13.6	0.65
Derrick Favors	39	42	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.02	9	7	2	16.8	18.8	-2.03	13.9	13.9	-0.04
Ben Uzoh	23	24	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	11	-6	18.7	17.7	1.07	12.8	14.3	-1.45
Stephen Graham	24	25	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	13	-10	15.1	19.0	-3.90	15.0	13.5	1.52
Quinton Ross	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	19.0	17.9	1.08	10.5	14.0	-3.48
Sasha Vujacic	32	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	19	-22	17.5	18.2	-0.64	13.7	14.0	-0.37
Johan Petro	17	18	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	22	-28	18.2	17.9	0.29	13.8	13.9	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.86,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 94, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.1%
SAC 82, SEA 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.96,1	95.1%
MIA 80, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.99,1,0.98,0.91,1	94.8%