NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	9.2 [93]		MVP	Eddie House (MIA): +38.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Comeback	2.8 [394]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -19.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.39	0.02	0.37	0.01	2	83%	0.40	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	59%	0.21	4	-0.14	11	64%	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	86%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	13	59%	0.09	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.06
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	6	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.19	-0.01	-0.17	0.01	22	62%	0.08	9	-0.27	8	75%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	8	81%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.1,0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	20	56%	0.23	3	-0.16	19	84%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	21	51%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	22	40%	-0.08	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.0	37.0	18.8	27.4	2.7	41.3	159.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +68.5%

OKC -14.4%

MIA +16.5%

OKC -23.5%

MIA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.5	112.5	108.4	105.7
season	16.0	15.0		109.0	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	15.1	15.2	15.7	15.3
OKC	11.6	15.5	16.1	17.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	23	22	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.57	6	-1	7	14.9	15.4	-0.53	15.8	14.6	1.22
Mike Miller	56	55	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-8	21	15.5	15.0	0.51	15.7	13.8	1.87
LeBron James	80	81	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	-2	9	15.2	15.6	-0.42	14.5	16.9	-2.31
Chris Bosh	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	5	-5	14.5	17.7	-3.19	14.7	15.6	-0.92
Dwyane Wade	85	83	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	7	-9	15.2	16.2	-1.03	14.5	17.4	-2.90
James Jones	22	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	0	5	17.7	14.5	3.19	15.1	14.8	0.27
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	42	41	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	2	1	14.2	16.1	-1.88	14.4	15.2	-0.78
Mario Chalmers	47	46	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	15.3	15.3	-0.03	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Joel Anthony	51	51	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	11	-17	16.4	14.0	2.43	15.8	13.9	1.90

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	17	15	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-11	17	16.1	14.6	1.50	17.4	14.9	2.52
Nenad Krstic	33	34	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-9	13	13.6	15.5	-1.91	14.4	15.7	-1.28
Eric Maynor	21	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-1	-3	16.7	14.4	2.35	15.6	15.2	0.42
James Harden	57	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-5	5	14.6	15.4	-0.81	14.7	16.2	-1.49
Russell Westbrook	74	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	14.4	16.7	-2.35	15.3	15.2	0.10
Kevin Durant	81	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	14.4	17.9	-3.49	15.1	15.9	-0.72
Jeff Green	88	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	0	-5	14.9	14.4	0.49	15.2	16.1	-0.94
Daequan Cook	59	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.8	13.3	2.54	16.0	14.2	1.80
Nick Collison	45	47	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.20	-15	10	-25	15.3	14.5	0.85	15.2	15.3	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.39,0.29,0.1,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 104, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.06,0,0	91.7%
CHA 91, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.37,0.32,0.42,0	91.7%
CHI 86, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.26,0	91.5%