NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	3.7 [1112]		MVP	Kyle Korver (CHI): +19.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	84		Comeback	1.0 [483]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -9.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.01	-0.01	12	92%	0.22	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.01	0.03	17	74%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.00	0.03	-0.06	20	45%	0.09	1	-0.00	9	78%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	7	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	11	45%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	14	52%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	20	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	12	58%	-0.02
Sam Young	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	38%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	38%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.03	3	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	10	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.4	29.3	18.5	30.2	3.8	28.5	145.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +65.7%

MEM -9.6%

MEM -11.9%

CHI +5.4%

CHI +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MEM	NBA	CHI	MEM	NBA
this game	17.7	16.0	15.5	111.6	98.8	105.7
season	15.7	15.5		106.5	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.7	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	16.5	17.9	23.1	17.7
MEM	16.6	16.3	18.1	12.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	75	75	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.05	16	-4	20	17.5	18.5	-1.00	16.7	11.1	5.55
Luol Deng	74	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.10	13	-1	14	18.0	15.6	2.43	16.3	14.2	2.13
Derrick Rose	71	70	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	-1	14	17.5	18.3	-0.72	16.1	15.7	0.40
Ronnie Brewer	40	39	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	3	6	15.8	19.3	-3.50	14.6	17.2	-2.56
Kurt Thomas	46	47	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	9	-6	19.0	16.1	2.85	16.4	15.4	1.00
Keith Bogans	31	31	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	6	0	17.0	18.1	-1.10	18.6	14.5	4.16
Omer Asik	30	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	6	0	15.7	18.7	-3.03	14.2	16.9	-2.61
Kyle Korver	46	45	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	13	-14	19.0	16.1	2.94	14.7	17.5	-2.83
CJ Watson	17	17	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	17	-22	19.2	17.3	1.87	15.1	16.2	-1.18

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	20	19	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.25	10	-22	32	13.4	16.8	-3.33	21.4	16.6	4.74
Darrell Arthur	26	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.25	7	-19	26	14.1	16.8	-2.72	19.3	16.8	2.52
Hamed Haddadi	7	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	-5	-2	15.1	16.1	-0.93	11.7	18.2	-6.49
Greivis Vasquez	44	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-13	14	15.0	17.1	-2.17	18.8	16.5	2.34
O.J. Mayo	51	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-9	6	15.6	16.6	-1.03	19.2	15.4	3.84
Mike Conley	52	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-2	-8	16.7	14.9	1.83	16.2	20.0	-3.82
Zach Randolph	60	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	0	-12	16.3	15.4	0.91	16.9	19.3	-2.40
Marc Gasol	46	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	7	-26	17.7	14.1	3.60	17.0	18.5	-1.49
Sam Young	57	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	16.0	16.0	0.05	17.1	18.8	-1.73
Rudy Gay	62	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	5	-22	16.7	14.1	2.56	17.4	18.5	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 123, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
BOS 109, CHH 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.1,0,0	96.2%
NOH 89, IND 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.18,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%