NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	2.9 [1212]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +9.8%
Boston Celtics	122		Comeback	1.1 [1241]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -7.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	15	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	13	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03
Joey Dorsey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ed Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jose Calderon	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	79%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	13	54%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	15	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	0.00	0.04	8	94%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Luke Harangody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.00	0.02	11	74%	0.10	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	68%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	64%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	10	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semih Erden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	7	56%	-0.00	6	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	30.3	15.7	27.1	1.8	28.0	129.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.1%

BOS +2.0%

BOS +12.8%

BOS +3.3%

BOS +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	17.0	15.5	112.1	132.6	105.7
season	15.1	15.7		104.7	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.5		99.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	15.8	13.7	13.4	14.5
BOS	15.6	14.2	19.9	18.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	26	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.20	4	-24	28	12.6	15.3	-2.70	18.0	16.6	1.43
Joey Dorsey	17	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-19	18	17.2	13.9	3.28	13.8	17.7	-3.95
Amir Johnson	40	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-11	2	14.2	14.7	-0.50	17.9	16.2	1.66
Leandro Barbosa	52	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	-9	-2	13.4	15.9	-2.48	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Andrea Bargnani	67	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	-6	-8	14.5	14.5	0.01	17.2	16.2	0.99
Ed Davis	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	-6	-8	14.1	14.9	-0.85	16.6	17.3	-0.65
Linas Kleiza	68	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.12	-16	-4	-12	14.5	14.6	-0.08	17.3	16.0	1.28
Jose Calderon	61	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.23	-22	2	-24	15.6	12.4	3.19	16.2	18.5	-2.29
DeMar DeRozan	78	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.08	-17	-3	-14	14.9	12.4	2.47	17.2	15.6	1.55

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	50	51	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.31	23	-3	26	15.5	18.6	-3.10	15.3	13.5	1.75
Ray Allen	54	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.22	19	1	18	17.0	16.9	0.06	15.6	12.9	2.68
Glen Davis	63	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.23	19	1	18	17.4	16.0	1.40	14.6	14.2	0.39
Paul Pierce	52	51	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	10	0	17.1	16.7	0.37	15.0	13.9	1.08
Luke Harangody	52	50	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.12	13	7	6	17.2	16.7	0.45	14.1	15.0	-0.90
Shaquille O'Neal	39	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	13	-6	16.6	17.2	-0.64	15.0	14.1	0.90
Marquis Daniels	43	44	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.11	11	9	2	16.7	17.2	-0.49	13.3	15.6	-2.34
Jermaine O'Neal	18	17	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	12	-4	14.6	17.5	-2.92	15.1	14.4	0.68
Nate Robinson	40	39	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	17	-14	18.3	15.9	2.47	13.8	15.1	-1.29
Von Wafer	30	28	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	22	-24	18.0	16.4	1.60	12.9	15.2	-2.28
Avery Bradley	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	24	-28	14.7	17.1	-2.43	15.0	14.5	0.54
Semih Erden	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.20	-7	27	-34	18.5	16.7	1.77	13.1	14.7	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 68, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
DEN 93, ATL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
TOR 89, WAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%