NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	119		Excitement	8.6 [156]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +45.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Comeback	3.1 [335]		LVP	Jonny Flynn (MIN): -10.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.46	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.46	0.24	0.26	0.04	14	88%	0.68	5	-0.23	13	92%	0.08
Renaldo Balkman	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.10	-0.01	5	83%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	15	51%	0.16	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	12	61%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	6	55%	0.14	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02
Melvin Ely	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.04	-0.09	0.04	-0.01	16	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Gary Forbes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	10	38%	0.00	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.27	0.27	0.20	0.09	0.01	20	69%	0.31	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.06
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.12	-0.01	10	87%	0.33	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	11	65%	0.25	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	19	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.3	33.4	14.8	25.2	2.4	40.4	143.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.4%

DEN +5.6%

MIN -3.4%

DEN +7.4%

MIN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	13.8	14.8	15.5	116.7	114.1	105.7
season	14.3	14.3		110.7	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.5		109.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.1	12.0	15.5	12.2	13.8
MIN	13.9	15.2	15.2	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	66	63	1.00	-0.50	1.51	0.39	21	-15	36	13.7	14.1	-0.49	15.2	14.2	1.03
Arron Afflalo	82	79	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-5	16	13.7	14.4	-0.78	14.9	14.5	0.44
Chris Andersen	65	62	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-2	10	12.9	15.5	-2.57	15.0	14.5	0.53
Ty Lawson	73	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.21	2	4	-2	13.1	15.7	-2.56	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Chauncey Billups	79	78	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.20	-2	8	-10	14.2	12.6	1.62	14.1	17.6	-3.52
Melvin Ely	41	41	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	8	-10	14.8	13.2	1.56	14.5	15.1	-0.62
Shelden Williams	40	39	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	7	-8	15.6	12.7	2.88	14.7	14.9	-0.26
Renaldo Balkman	39	38	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	6	-6	13.3	14.2	-0.92	15.9	14.2	1.78
Gary Forbes	25	25	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.08	-7	13	-20	14.7	13.5	1.19	14.8	14.9	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Pekovic	39	40	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.07	1	-7	8	15.0	14.8	0.21	14.6	13.3	1.32
Darko Milicic	27	28	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-7	8	14.7	14.9	-0.25	16.3	12.9	3.44
Wayne Ellington	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-5	4	13.6	15.0	-1.33	9.2	14.2	-4.96
Jonny Flynn	22	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-3	0	17.0	14.2	2.77	14.2	13.7	0.51
Corey Brewer	40	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-1	-4	15.7	14.3	1.43	13.7	13.9	-0.28
Michael Beasley	79	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-8	10	14.6	15.6	-1.00	14.3	12.2	2.04
Kosta Koufos	8	7	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	0	-6	17.4	14.6	2.75	6.1	14.4	-8.25
Wesley Johnson	65	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-2	-2	14.4	15.7	-1.26	13.5	14.5	-1.01
Luke Ridnour	77	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-3	0	14.2	17.0	-2.77	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Martell Webster	47	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-3	0	15.2	14.5	0.65	14.1	13.6	0.50
Kevin Love	83	86	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.46	-9	3	-12	14.7	15.9	-1.22	13.5	15.7	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.42,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.31,0.25,0.45,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, DEN 74	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.28,0.05,0,0	90.2%
MIA 102, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.45,0.02,0	90.2%
NYK 120, MIL 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.23,0.02,0	90.2%