NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	7.0 [438]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +21.9%
Brooklyn Nets	98		Comeback	2.2 [669]		LVP	Thomas Robinson (BKN): -11.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.09	-0.03	18	69%	0.35	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	7	93%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,0.15,0.14	0.04	0.13	0.03	22	55%	0.26	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	6	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.06	0.00	12	74%	0.21	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	8	79%	0.25	5	-0.22	3	100%	0.04
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	9	59%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergey Karasev	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Donald Sloan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	8	62%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	47%	0.06	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.05
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	26.5	15.4	25.8	1.6	33.4	126.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.8%

BKN -16.6%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +20.3%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	14.9	107.4	104.3	105.1
season	15.5	15.0		104.5	101.9
opponent	14.8	15.1		109.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	15.0	15.1	15.8	15.5
BKN	14.0	15.0	16.2	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	63	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	0	4	15.5	15.4	0.16	15.0	14.9	0.17
Beno Udrih	61	60	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	-1	6	15.3	15.9	-0.62	15.1	14.7	0.44
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	-2	8	15.1	16.4	-1.29	15.0	15.0	-0.07
Justise Winslow	73	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	0	4	15.7	14.9	0.81	14.7	16.0	-1.30
Luol Deng	62	62	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	1	2	14.9	16.7	-1.81	14.9	15.2	-0.25
Amar'e Stoudemire	45	47	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	-6	16	14.9	16.0	-1.13	15.4	14.6	0.83
Gerald Green	30	28	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	6	-8	16.4	15.1	1.29	15.0	15.0	0.07
Tyler Johnson	34	34	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.05	-1	5	-6	15.9	15.3	0.62	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Udonis Haslem	42	39	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.11	-9	13	-22	16.6	14.6	2.08	15.1	14.9	0.15

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Larkin	48	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-5	6	15.1	14.9	0.23	15.9	15.1	0.79
Sergey Karasev	11	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	0	-4	17.0	14.7	2.28	16.8	15.3	1.54
Bojan Bogdanovic	47	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-5	6	15.0	15.0	0.06	14.6	16.4	-1.82
Willie Reed	5	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	2	-8	17.2	14.9	2.33	15.2	15.5	-0.34
Thomas Robinson	10	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-2	0	16.3	14.8	1.47	14.2	15.7	-1.41
Andrea Bargnani	48	48	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-1	-2	14.9	15.0	-0.11	16.1	14.9	1.17
Thaddeus Young	64	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.27	3	-7	10	14.7	15.7	-1.04	15.3	15.9	-0.68
Joe Johnson	72	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-6	8	14.6	16.2	-1.56	15.6	15.0	0.58
Brook Lopez	60	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-4	4	15.1	14.8	0.35	15.9	14.7	1.23
Donald Sloan	46	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	1	-6	14.9	15.1	-0.23	15.1	15.9	-0.79
Wayne Ellington	59	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	14.9	15.1	-0.24	15.4	15.7	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.45,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, DEN 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.41,0.09,0	92.0%
IND 101, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.28,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.09,0	92.0%
SEA 72, CLE 66	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.23,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.68,0.17,0	91.9%