NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	8.0 [222]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): +23.1%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.8 [142]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -27.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23	0.14	0.09	-0.00	11	70%	0.27	1	-0.04	8	62%	0.01
John Salmons	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.16,0.18	0.09	0.11	0.01	16	63%	0.30	3	-0.12	9	100%	0.11
Luke Ridnour	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	8	69%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	7	60%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Ersan Ilyasova	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	12	54%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kurt Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Charlie Bell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	9	47%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.11	0.01	17	57%	0.22	1	-0.03	17	100%	0.14
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	6	77%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	16	34%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.22,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.17,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.15	0.01	29	41%	-0.11	4	-0.16	12	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	29.2	15.8	28.3	2.3	39.6	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +64.7%

MIL +15.5%

DEN -21.3%

DEN -3.7%

DEN -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.5	15.3	110.9	104.3	106.0
season	15.5	14.4		103.3	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.4	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.5	13.2	18.8	14.6	15.6
DEN	14.8	16.8	15.7	14.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	69	70	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-7	19	15.4	16.1	-0.64	15.7	15.0	0.76
Kurt Thomas	51	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	4	-3	15.8	15.4	0.35	13.6	17.8	-4.17
Brandon Jennings	50	52	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	0	5	16.8	14.1	2.70	16.9	13.8	3.04
Carlos Delfino	51	51	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	-2	9	15.0	16.4	-1.41	15.8	15.2	0.61
John Salmons	76	75	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	4	-3	15.8	14.8	0.96	15.5	15.5	0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	65	64	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.37	-4	9	-13	14.9	17.4	-2.49	14.6	17.6	-2.94
Andrew Bogut	24	26	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	-1	7	16.7	15.2	1.49	20.3	13.7	6.58
Royal Ivey	16	17	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.06	7	-2	9	11.9	16.4	-4.52	16.7	15.3	1.44
Luke Ridnour	35	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	7	-9	16.2	15.3	0.91	14.0	16.5	-2.54
Charlie Bell	2	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	8	-11	5.0	15.8	-10.84	17.0	15.5	1.51
Jerry Stackhouse	21	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.05	-5	10	-15	17.7	15.0	2.67	14.0	16.0	-1.94

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	22	20	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.02	6	-11	17	14.6	15.8	-1.17	18.6	14.8	3.82
Anthony Carter	19	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	17.8	14.9	2.91	17.8	15.1	2.70
Johan Petro	22	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	3	-11	18.4	14.6	3.72	17.9	14.9	3.02
Arron Afflalo	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	16.5	14.7	1.75	15.3	15.9	-0.62
Joey Graham	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	2	-9	15.3	15.6	-0.32	13.9	16.3	-2.38
Chris Andersen	61	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	15.0	16.6	-1.63	15.8	15.2	0.57
J.R. Smith	50	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-3	1	14.7	16.5	-1.75	15.9	15.3	0.62
Carmelo Anthony	79	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-4	3	15.5	15.9	-0.39	15.3	17.5	-2.16
Chauncey Billups	74	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	14.9	17.8	-2.91	15.1	17.8	-2.70
Nene	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.40	-8	3	-11	15.6	15.4	0.12	14.8	17.9	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.41,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 102, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.45,0.02,0	92.0%
PHX 104, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.28,0.47,0.04,0	91.8%
LAL 80, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.16,0	91.8%