NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	95		Excitement	9.6 [69]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +30.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	97		Comeback	3.6 [370]		LVP	Brandon Rush (IND): -31.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.27	0.05	0.23	0.02	18	55%	0.32	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.05
Josh McRoberts	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.00	4	80%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
James Posey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	47%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Jeff Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.09	0.01	16	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	8	57%	-0.06	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.08
Brandon Rush	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.31,-0.31	-0.09	-0.22	0.00	9	28%	-0.13	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3	0.30	0.09	0.21	-0.00	14	58%	0.30	0	0.00	8	87%	0.08
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.2	0.20	-0.05	0.25	0.00	14	45%	0.29	2	-0.09	10	70%	0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.10	0.01	6	57%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	7	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	16	49%	-0.02	3	-0.09	13	69%	-0.08
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	7	14%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.27	-0.27	-0.05	-0.23	-0.01	17	41%	-0.11	2	-0.16	5	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	30.1	15.4	27.4	2.5	31.7	136.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -12.2%

MIL +23.0%

MIL +19.8%

MIL +10.9%

MIL +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.1	17.1	15.5	102.2	105.4	105.7
season	14.7	16.2		103.1	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.4		100.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.0	15.3	11.1	15.1	14.1
MIL	15.7	15.4	18.9	18.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	47	48	0.44	-0.94	1.38	0.21	8	-10	18	13.0	15.1	-2.09	18.7	15.3	3.41
Mike Dunleavy	56	57	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.08	4	-6	10	13.9	14.4	-0.55	17.9	15.8	2.11
Solomon Jones	13	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	1	-4	14.1	14.1	0.00	16.4	17.2	-0.76
Darren Collison	63	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-3	4	13.7	14.9	-1.22	16.8	17.6	-0.78
Danny Granger	73	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-6	10	13.3	16.9	-3.66	17.5	15.6	1.89
T.J. Ford	30	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	1	-4	14.9	13.7	1.22	17.6	16.8	0.78
Roy Hibbert	59	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-3	4	13.6	14.9	-1.27	18.1	15.3	2.72
James Posey	45	44	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	6	-14	15.5	12.8	2.70	15.3	18.7	-3.41
Jeff Foster	22	21	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	0	-2	14.7	13.9	0.79	14.7	17.8	-3.06
Brandon Rush	57	55	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.59	-12	10	-22	15.3	12.1	3.16	15.7	19.1	-3.40

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	75	75	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-10	22	16.7	18.9	-2.22	14.8	11.1	3.68
Brandon Jennings	67	69	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	-3	8	16.7	18.0	-1.21	13.4	15.9	-2.43
Luc Mbah a Moute	62	63	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.47	0	2	-2	16.6	18.0	-1.42	13.9	14.5	-0.63
Andrew Bogut	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	1	0	17.0	17.2	-0.17	14.1	14.1	-0.03
John Salmons	77	79	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	3	-4	17.1	16.7	0.41	13.6	16.8	-3.19
Chris Douglas-Roberts	15	14	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	-1	4	16.7	17.1	-0.41	16.8	13.6	3.19
Corey Maggette	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	0	2	18.0	16.6	1.42	14.5	13.9	0.63
Keyon Dooling	25	24	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	5	-8	18.0	16.7	1.21	15.9	13.4	2.43
Jon Brockman	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	20.2	16.9	3.32	10.2	14.2	-4.00
Brian Skinner	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	4	-6	9.7	17.3	-7.66	13.0	14.1	-1.11
Larry Sanders	29	31	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	8	-14	18.6	16.4	2.15	13.0	14.6	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.22,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 80, TOR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,1	90.9%
UTA 94, DAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.73,1	90.4%
DAL 99, OKC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.31,0.42,1	90.3%