NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	9.9 [53]		MVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): +21.1%
Toronto Raptors	81		Comeback	3.3 [295]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -31.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.08	0.02	17	71%	0.30	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	18%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04
Brian Grant	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	15	48%	-0.12	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.31	-0.03	-0.27	0.00	8	50%	-0.23	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.16,-0.21,-0.24,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.15	-0.18	-0.01	12	50%	-0.12	6	-0.19	10	50%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.21	0.21	-0.04	0.24	-0.01	19	50%	0.31	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	3	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	12	46%	-0.07	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	12	49%	-0.14	0	0.00	13	62%	-0.04
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	15	58%	0.05	5	-0.20	3	100%	0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	36.4	16.6	24.3	2.5	36.4	143.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +29.1%

TOR +8.3%

MIA -26.1%

TOR +18.9%

TOR +19.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	17.1	17.0	15.6	94.1	96.4	102.3
season	16.5	16.2		96.6	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		100.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	14.3	16.4	20.8	17.1
TOR	14.5	16.3	19.6	18.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	14	15	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.02	3	-4	7	12.4	18.0	-5.60	15.6	17.3	-1.68
Vladimir Stepania	18	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	0	-1	15.2	17.6	-2.46	15.1	17.4	-2.36
LaPhonso Ellis	30	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	3	-7	19.9	15.6	4.32	16.4	17.3	-0.90
Chris Gatling	9	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	3	-7	16.3	17.2	-0.86	14.9	17.2	-2.32
Eddie House	24	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-1	1	16.7	17.2	-0.50	14.5	18.1	-3.53
Eddie Jones	65	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.47	7	-8	15	17.6	15.4	2.23	17.3	16.0	1.32
Rod Strickland	67	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-1	1	16.8	18.2	-1.35	17.6	14.9	2.69
Brian Grant	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-4	7	18.0	13.5	4.47	17.2	16.1	1.05
Alonzo Mourning	73	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	0	-1	17.0	17.9	-0.94	17.8	11.5	6.25
Jim Jackson	57	57	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.53	-8	7	-15	16.5	18.3	-1.81	17.2	16.4	0.78

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	75	75	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.47	5	-4	9	17.2	14.9	2.34	17.2	16.2	1.03
Morris Peterson	73	75	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.53	0	1	-1	17.1	16.2	0.91	17.6	13.7	3.86
Antonio Davis	69	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	-1	3	17.2	15.7	1.51	16.7	19.4	-2.70
Keon Clark	45	44	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.55	-6	7	-13	16.6	17.4	-0.81	17.3	16.9	0.39
Alvin Williams	65	68	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.39	-5	6	-11	17.7	14.4	3.37	16.2	20.7	-4.50
Hakeem Olajuwon	14	15	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	-7	15	15.3	17.3	-2.03	16.8	17.2	-0.37
Chris Childs	39	37	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-2	5	15.0	18.7	-3.69	17.6	16.7	0.87
Eric Montross	39	40	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	1	-1	17.9	16.2	1.77	17.8	16.5	1.31
Jermaine Jackson	1	0	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	3	-5	2.0	17.2	-15.16	0.0	17.1	-17.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.42,1	91.7%
ORL 110, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.28,1	91.4%
NJN 90, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	91.3%