NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	94		Excitement	8.4 [175]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +67.5%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	2.2 [584]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -15.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.43	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.43	-0.01	0.41	-0.03	16	53%	0.51	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Kyle Korver	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	5	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	75%	0.22	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Mehmet Okur	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.00	13	68%	0.20	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	7	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.67	0.67	0.17	0.51	0.00	23	63%	0.70	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.35	0.35	0.11	0.22	-0.01	14	62%	0.35	0	0.00	6	100%	0.09
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	6	78%	0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.03	8	17%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	25.5	16.6	24.1	2.5	37.3	131.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -17.5%

DAL +29.9%

DAL +23.9%

DAL +7.6%

DAL +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.7	17.8	15.4	111.9	116.9	105.7
season	15.5	16.1		111.2	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.0		105.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.4	17.6	17.3	15.4	16.7
DAL	14.9	16.7	19.7	20.6	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Price	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-6	9	16.2	16.9	-0.69	19.8	17.0	2.81
Paul Millsap	35	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-5	7	16.3	17.0	-0.76	20.3	15.9	4.48
Ronnie Brewer	34	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	0	-3	17.8	15.9	1.88	16.5	18.7	-2.24
Matt Harpring	31	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-1	-1	16.4	16.9	-0.45	19.8	16.6	3.16
Andrei Kirilenko	53	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-2	1	16.9	16.4	0.45	16.6	19.8	-3.16
Carlos Boozer	63	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	16.3	17.9	-1.60	17.0	19.8	-2.75
Kyle Korver	41	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-3	3	16.6	16.8	-0.28	18.6	17.0	1.51
Mehmet Okur	70	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	17.3	13.8	3.50	17.1	21.3	-4.16
Deron Williams	69	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	3	-9	16.4	18.1	-1.66	17.3	19.9	-2.65

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	61	63	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-6	15	16.7	20.7	-3.99	16.6	16.9	-0.27
Erick Dampier	61	62	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-10	23	17.0	20.0	-2.94	17.4	14.7	2.68
Dirk Nowitzki	58	59	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-2	7	18.1	17.2	0.85	17.3	15.4	1.91
Jason Terry	59	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	2	-1	18.6	15.7	2.94	17.2	15.5	1.68
Devean George	49	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	7	-11	19.5	15.3	4.24	16.9	16.5	0.37
Eddie Jones	27	27	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	-2	7	16.0	18.7	-2.66	14.9	17.6	-2.73
Josh Howard	38	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	-3	9	15.1	20.1	-5.01	16.0	17.3	-1.31
Brandon Bass	27	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	9	-15	18.2	17.6	0.63	15.6	17.3	-1.70
Tyronn Lue	17	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	9	-15	20.8	17.0	3.73	17.7	16.5	1.22
Juwan Howard	18	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	11	-19	20.7	17.0	3.67	15.7	16.9	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	92.1%
LAC 85, MIA 90	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.8,0.73,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.67,0.57,1	92.0%
NJN 96, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	91.9%