NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	7.2 [389]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +29.2%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	2.5 [286]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -18.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.29	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29	0.20	0.09	-0.00	14	93%	0.37	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.16	0.02	12	66%	0.27	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.00
Tyson Chandler	0.20	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.08	0.04	3	86%	0.20	0	0.00	16	81%	0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	37%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Alexis Ajinca	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	13	43%	0.06	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02
Caron Butler	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	11	33%	-0.08	4	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.11	0.00	11	70%	0.24	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	-0.00	0.05	16	76%	0.27	4	-0.16	9	100%	0.06
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.07	-0.05	12	56%	0.12	2	-0.12	3	33%	-0.03
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	12	36%	-0.07	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	34.3	15.5	23.6	2.4	29.2	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.3%

SAS -20.8%

DAL +13.3%

DAL +16.3%

DAL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.5	112.0	102.2	105.7
season	15.7	15.5		108.5	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.6	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	13.2	17.6	17.5	15.5
SAS	17.3	15.6	16.0	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.20	15	-6	21	16.0	13.2	2.85	16.2	14.5	1.68
Jason Terry	68	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	2	5	15.6	15.0	0.56	15.3	17.5	-2.18
Shawn Marion	53	54	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	5	-1	15.7	15.1	0.66	14.6	17.7	-3.13
Jason Kidd	68	66	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	1	7	14.3	18.7	-4.40	16.3	14.7	1.56
Tyson Chandler	61	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	2	5	14.6	17.2	-2.67	16.6	14.4	2.16
Ian Mahinmi	25	26	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	3	3	17.7	14.6	3.11	15.4	16.0	-0.59
DeShawn Stevenson	25	26	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.10	6	3	3	15.4	15.5	-0.13	17.8	15.1	2.68
Jose Juan Barea	28	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	10	-11	17.6	14.5	3.09	14.2	16.7	-2.49
Alexis Ajinca	6	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	13	-17	15.2	15.5	-0.31	10.2	16.2	-6.08
Caron Butler	52	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	12	-15	14.6	16.6	-2.02	17.0	14.5	2.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	19	16	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-12	15	13.1	16.6	-3.46	14.9	15.6	-0.63
Gary Neal	27	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-10	11	16.4	15.6	0.74	15.7	15.4	0.33
Matt Bonner	49	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-8	7	14.5	17.4	-2.95	14.8	16.1	-1.32
Ime Udoka	11	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-5	1	14.5	16.0	-1.48	15.7	15.4	0.27
DeJuan Blair	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-3	-3	18.3	15.0	3.28	16.2	15.2	1.01
Antonio McDyess	25	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-4	-1	15.6	15.9	-0.29	16.7	14.9	1.82
Manu Ginobili	65	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-6	3	15.9	15.6	0.31	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Tim Duncan	64	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-5	1	16.4	14.6	1.83	15.5	15.5	-0.01
George Hill	64	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-7	5	15.4	16.9	-1.55	15.6	15.0	0.65
Richard Jefferson	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	17.2	14.8	2.43	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Tony Parker	72	75	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.15	-17	8	-25	15.9	15.7	0.13	15.5	15.2	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.66,0.52,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 108, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.48,0.53,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.09,0.05,0	92.0%
ORL 89, DEN 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.41,0.4,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.8%
NOH 91, MEM 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.19,0.08,0,0,0	91.8%