NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	6.6 [469]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +11.9%
Denver Nuggets	80		Comeback	1.9 [646]		LVP	Junior Harrington (DEN): -22.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	9	85%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	15	48%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jeryl Sasser	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Humphrey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	62%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.05	0.01	14	47%	0.11	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Kemp	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	9	63%	0.02	3	-0.08	9	100%	0.03
Darrell Armstrong	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	9	48%	-0.01	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.07	0.01	18	56%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	13	56%	0.00	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Predrag Savovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	5	30%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	10	20%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.08	0.04	14	47%	-0.07	2	-0.10	6	67%	-0.08
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.18	-0.07	-0.02	6	25%	-0.09	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.0	26.0	16.7	25.6	2.4	33.2	133.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +35.7%

ORL +17.1%

DEN -32.2%

ORL +28.8%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	16.5	15.5	96.7	85.1	101.6
season	14.6	15.7		102.7	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.8		99.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.5	16.5	14.7	13.3	14.5
DEN	13.7	16.2	18.0	18.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	80	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	4	1	15.1	10.3	4.74	16.6	16.1	0.49
Mike Miller	65	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-3	15	15.6	11.6	4.05	15.3	19.5	-4.20
Pat Garrity	76	78	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	0	9	15.0	11.9	3.13	15.4	21.7	-6.34
Shawn Kemp	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	6	-3	15.8	11.0	4.82	15.9	17.8	-1.84
Darrell Armstrong	64	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	5	-1	15.4	12.3	3.07	15.9	17.8	-1.97
Jacque Vaughn	28	31	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	4	1	12.3	15.4	-3.07	17.3	16.1	1.15
Andrew DeClercq	26	28	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	3	3	11.0	15.8	-4.82	18.4	15.7	2.71
Pat Burke	16	16	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	9	-9	11.9	15.0	-3.13	21.7	15.4	6.34
Jeryl Sasser	37	40	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	8	-7	11.5	16.4	-4.92	18.0	15.3	2.72
Ryan Humphrey	2	1	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	9	-9	5.5	14.7	-9.16	29.0	16.4	12.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	21	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-11	13	18.6	15.9	2.68	10.5	15.4	-4.92
Ryan Bowen	29	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	-4	-1	16.4	16.5	-0.11	12.9	15.1	-2.17
Mark Blount	29	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-3	-3	17.8	15.9	1.84	11.0	15.8	-4.82
Predrag Savovic	31	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	17.4	16.0	1.34	10.2	16.3	-6.05
Junior Harrington	50	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-10	11	16.0	17.0	-1.00	15.7	12.9	2.85
Vincent Yarbrough	42	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	3	-15	17.3	15.9	1.40	13.5	15.2	-1.64
Nene	72	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-6	3	16.0	18.0	-2.03	15.9	9.4	6.46
Rodney White	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-6	3	15.9	17.8	-1.84	15.8	11.0	4.82
Juwan Howard	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	-2	-5	15.5	20.0	-4.58	15.0	12.4	2.57
Donnell Harvey	58	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	-1	-7	17.0	15.6	1.38	15.5	12.5	3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.41,0.4,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 113, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.04,0.03,0	93.8%
NOH 91, MEM 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.19,0.08,0,0,0	93.5%
POR 91, LAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.26,0.07,0.1,0.09,0	93.2%