NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	8.0 [229]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +19.6%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	3.7 [502]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -21.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.06	-0.01	15	76%	0.32	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.02
Josh Smith	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.10	0.00	9	64%	0.19	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Marvin Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	9	72%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	6	61%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.04
Zaza Pachulia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	12	52%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	22	54%	0.14	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.01	11	58%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.15	-0.01	0.01	22	58%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	15	56%	0.13	0	0.00	9	89%	0.05
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.06
Desmond Mason	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	21	34%	-0.16	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	31.2	15.5	23.6	2.5	33.6	131.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +74.1%

SAC -1.7%

ATL +0.1%

SAC -26.0%

ATL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAC	NBA	ATL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	15.6	15.3	118.9	111.7	106.0
season	16.0	15.2		109.4	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.8		108.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.3	15.0	15.5	16.7	14.8
SAC	17.2	15.0	15.1	15.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	66	64	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.30	16	-8	24	15.3	13.8	1.54	15.7	15.6	0.02
Jamal Crawford	67	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	0	8	14.8	15.0	-0.24	15.5	16.1	-0.65
Joe Johnson	73	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	-1	10	15.3	13.2	2.15	15.4	16.4	-0.94
Mike Bibby	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	4	0	15.0	14.4	0.55	15.4	16.3	-0.91
Marvin Williams	62	61	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	1	6	15.0	14.6	0.39	14.9	17.0	-2.04
Joe Smith	15	14	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	4	0	13.3	15.1	-1.78	16.1	15.6	0.50
Maurice Evans	31	29	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	6	-4	13.9	15.3	-1.38	15.9	15.5	0.36
Jeff Teague	11	11	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	5	-2	13.0	15.1	-2.07	16.6	15.5	1.12
Josh Smith	55	55	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	13	-18	15.2	14.3	0.88	16.8	14.0	2.86
Zaza Pachulia	29	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.03	-8	16	-24	13.8	15.3	-1.54	15.6	15.7	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean May	11	12	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-10	12	14.2	15.8	-1.66	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Kenny Thomas	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-6	4	16.9	15.4	1.42	13.5	15.1	-1.56
Omri Casspi	29	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.0	15.5	0.51	14.8	14.9	-0.09
Tyreke Evans	75	74	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-12	16	15.6	16.0	-0.44	15.1	13.9	1.25
Jon Brockman	3	3	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-3	-2	21.3	15.5	5.87	10.0	15.0	-4.99
Beno Udrih	49	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-4	0	14.0	17.4	-3.36	14.6	15.1	-0.52
Spencer Hawes	60	59	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-5	2	17.1	13.1	4.06	15.1	14.4	0.76
Desmond Mason	6	5	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-2	-4	18.0	15.5	2.51	15.6	14.8	0.81
Andres Nocioni	64	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-5	2	15.1	16.9	-1.84	14.8	14.8	0.05
Jason Thompson	80	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-2	-4	15.4	16.9	-1.42	15.1	13.5	1.56
Kevin Martin	79	80	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.35	-11	3	-14	15.8	15.0	0.77	14.7	15.3	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.04,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 89, DEN 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.41,0.4,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.8%
DEN 102, NOH 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.26,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	92.5%
DAL 81, IND 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.4%