NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.1 [601]		MVP	Rodney Carney (GSW): +13.2%
Golden State Warriors	89		Comeback	1.6 [686]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -18.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	13	73%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.05	0.08	24	60%	0.18	3	-0.08	17	100%	0.09
Chris Andersen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	78%	0.10	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.05	0.03	8	78%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.03	10	75%	0.14	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	9	89%	0.21	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	21	40%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	13	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	6	17%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.07	0.07	22	42%	-0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.6	28.5	14.8	24.2	1.8	29.3	128.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.3%

DEN +15.1%

DEN +8.5%

GSW -18.3%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.0	16.3	15.5	111.6	93.7	105.7
season	14.3	14.8		110.7	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.2	13.2	14.6	18.0	14.0
GSW	15.5	16.3	18.1	15.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	65	65	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.02	19	-2	21	15.3	11.1	4.19	16.2	16.5	-0.22
Nene	60	61	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.12	22	-5	27	13.2	15.3	-2.04	17.0	15.0	2.00
Ty Lawson	68	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	0	17	13.3	15.8	-2.48	15.9	17.3	-1.38
Arron Afflalo	79	80	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	2	13	13.5	16.6	-3.16	16.2	16.9	-0.73
Carmelo Anthony	75	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	6	5	13.5	15.9	-2.41	15.7	18.6	-2.96
J.R. Smith	29	30	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	8	1	16.2	13.0	3.23	17.4	15.8	1.58
Anthony Carter	27	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	17	-17	15.8	13.3	2.48	17.3	15.9	1.38
Gary Forbes	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	21	-25	14.1	14.0	0.14	18.4	16.1	2.28
Chris Andersen	35	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	22	-27	15.3	13.2	2.04	15.0	17.0	-2.00
Shelden Williams	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	16	-15	11.5	15.1	-3.57	16.8	16.1	0.74

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Adrien	7	8	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-20	23	12.4	16.6	-4.20	12.7	14.1	-1.36
Jeremy Lin	24	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-17	17	17.7	15.9	1.81	16.9	13.0	3.91
Dorell Wright	60	61	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	-12	7	16.4	16.1	0.27	13.8	14.3	-0.46
Dan Gadzuric	64	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	-4	-9	16.5	15.9	0.61	14.0	14.0	0.05
Andris Biedrins	57	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.12	-16	-1	-15	16.4	16.1	0.31	13.7	14.5	-0.82
Rodney Carney	40	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-9	1	15.5	16.9	-1.41	14.0	14.0	0.04
Monta Ellis	84	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	-2	-13	16.2	16.8	-0.57	13.5	17.2	-3.62
Reggie Williams	57	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	-5	-7	16.9	15.4	1.49	14.6	13.0	1.62
Stephen Curry	82	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.00	-19	2	-21	16.0	18.4	-2.40	13.6	16.6	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.7%
HOU 109, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
CLE 101, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	93.4%