NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	109		Excitement	5.7 [715]		MVP	Clint Capela (HOU): +21.6%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	1.8 [381]		LVP	Mason Plumlee (DEN): -7.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.09	0.03	15	71%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	50%	0.01
James Ennis III	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	8	89%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	12	72%	0.20	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.02	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	16	55%	0.16	4	-0.09	8	75%	0.01
Gary Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.01	11	79%	0.22	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	125%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.01	13	56%	0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	65%	0.10	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	14	45%	0.05	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.06	0.02	13	58%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	25.5	15.4	26.5	2.4	32.4	130.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +30.9%

HOU +15.0%

HOU +0.2%

HOU +3.9%

HOU +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	14.3	122.5	111.2	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		114.0	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	15.6	16.3	19.9	16.9
DEN	14.6	15.7	16.4	15.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	74	76	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.11	25	-15	40	16.8	17.6	-0.84	15.8	13.5	2.25
James Harden	68	68	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-3	16	16.6	17.8	-1.13	15.6	14.9	0.79
Clint Capela	68	68	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	16.8	17.3	-0.51	15.2	16.1	-0.89
James Ennis III	64	63	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	1	8	16.8	17.2	-0.36	16.0	14.0	2.01
Eric Gordon	63	62	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	10	-10	16.9	16.8	0.13	14.8	17.0	-2.21
Chris Paul	58	59	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	4	2	17.7	15.5	2.17	15.5	15.4	0.04
Isaiah Hartenstein	21	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	13	-16	17.3	16.8	0.51	16.1	15.2	0.89
Gary Clark	29	28	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.09	-12	22	-34	16.5	17.1	-0.57	14.2	16.0	-1.77

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	11	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.07	2	-12	14	15.6	15.4	0.20	21.1	16.2	4.89
Mason Plumlee	26	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-14	18	16.2	15.2	0.98	18.0	16.5	1.56
Paul Millsap	49	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-5	0	15.1	15.9	-0.84	15.9	18.1	-2.23
Malik Beasley	15	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-4	-2	14.0	15.8	-1.76	15.3	17.2	-1.86
Jamal Murray	66	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-6	2	15.0	16.8	-1.78	17.1	16.3	0.78
Juancho Hernangomez	69	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-13	16	15.7	14.8	0.85	17.4	15.1	2.31
Trey Lyles	25	23	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	2	-14	16.8	14.9	1.86	15.7	17.3	-1.56
Monte Morris	56	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	-2	-6	15.4	15.5	-0.04	17.7	15.5	2.17
Gary Harris	66	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	0	-10	15.6	15.0	0.56	16.4	18.6	-2.19
Nikola Jokic	62	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.06	-14	4	-18	15.4	15.6	-0.24	16.2	18.5	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 113, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	94.3%
BOS 93, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.07,0,0,0,0	94.1%
TOR 99, PHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.7%