NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	9.0 [116]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +29.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	3.1 [227]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -16.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.29	0.04	0.24	-0.01	23	56%	0.43	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.03
Eddie House	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.17	0.13	0.01	13	77%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	14	62%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	29%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	8	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.13	-0.00	14	60%	0.29	2	-0.10	7	71%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,0.16	0.16	-0.07	0.23	-0.00	13	47%	0.28	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	8	61%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	78%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.09,0,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	12	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Xavier Henry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	29.0	16.5	31.5	2.5	30.8	135.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -20.8%

MEM +9.0%

MEM +74.8%

MIA -13.4%

MEM +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	17.2	16.5	15.5	110.5	114.1	105.7
season	16.0	15.5		109.0	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.1	16.7	16.4	17.4	17.2
MEM	14.6	18.4	14.9	18.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	36	36	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.16	6	-8	14	16.8	17.4	-0.64	15.9	17.0	-1.11
Udonis Haslem	30	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	16.2	17.7	-1.51	16.5	16.5	-0.02
Jamaal Magloire	7	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	14.4	17.4	-2.96	15.2	16.6	-1.47
Juwan Howard	14	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-2	2	18.5	16.9	1.61	15.1	16.8	-1.78
Jerry Stackhouse	35	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	1	-4	17.3	17.0	0.28	15.9	17.0	-1.09
Carlos Arroyo	38	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	3	-8	17.9	16.6	1.33	15.3	17.6	-2.26
LeBron James	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-1	0	16.8	19.9	-3.11	16.6	16.1	0.49
Eddie House	54	52	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.51	4	-6	10	16.9	17.5	-0.61	17.3	15.2	2.10
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	53	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	3	-8	17.3	17.0	0.29	16.8	16.0	0.85
Chris Bosh	68	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.49	0	-2	2	17.5	15.8	1.67	16.7	15.7	1.04
Mario Chalmers	19	18	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.68	-7	5	-12	18.2	16.9	1.29	19.1	15.8	3.28

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	61	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	-1	4	16.7	16.2	0.45	16.7	18.2	-1.47
Mike Conley	63	66	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	-3	8	16.5	16.5	0.04	16.8	18.2	-1.43
Zach Randolph	48	47	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.51	-4	6	-10	17.0	15.9	1.18	17.5	16.7	0.75
O.J. Mayo	38	38	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.48	-3	5	-8	16.7	16.4	0.28	17.5	16.9	0.58
Rudy Gay	63	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	2	-2	16.0	18.0	-2.05	17.0	17.7	-0.78
Darrell Arthur	51	52	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-7	16	15.9	17.4	-1.47	17.2	17.1	0.15
Sam Young	22	20	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	0	2	18.0	16.0	2.05	17.7	17.0	0.78
Xavier Henry	47	48	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	-3	8	16.4	16.7	-0.28	16.9	17.5	-0.58
Greivis Vasquez	22	20	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	5	-8	16.5	16.5	-0.04	18.2	16.8	1.43
Hasheem Thabeet	10	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	16.3	16.6	-0.26	17.7	17.1	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.35,0.38,0.61,0.29,0.55,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.55,0.58,1	92.2%
WAS 114, CHA 119	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.33,0.47,0.16,0.43,0.96,1	91.5%
IND 92, CLE 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.62,0.65,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.61,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.73,1	91.0%