NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	5.0 [857]		MVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): +17.1%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	1.0 [1306]		LVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): -16.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.04	-0.02	7	88%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	12	60%	0.09	1	-0.01	11	64%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.03	9	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Alabi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	8	68%	0.03	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
David Andersen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	23%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	10	18%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Andrea Bargnani	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.05	0.06	23	44%	-0.09	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.18	0.02	0.04	16	67%	0.20	1	-0.03	14	64%	-0.07
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.00	0.00	7	78%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	7	86%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.08	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	21	43%	0.06	3	-0.07	11	64%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.0	31.8	15.6	27.4	2.5	32.5	140.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.2%

MIA +7.8%

TOR -1.3%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.5	108.7	122.5	105.7
season	15.1	16.0		104.7	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	17.4	16.2	13.7	15.7
MIA	14.1	16.1	17.3	17.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Alabi	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	1.0	15.9	-14.89	14.0	16.1	-2.13
Joey Dorsey	29	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-11	13	17.8	14.8	3.07	15.5	16.4	-0.93
Julian Wright	38	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-10	11	16.6	15.1	1.54	14.8	17.0	-2.13
David Andersen	25	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-4	-1	17.2	15.2	1.97	16.6	15.9	0.68
Jarrett Jack	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-4	-1	16.2	15.3	0.87	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Amir Johnson	49	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	14.3	17.3	-2.96	16.8	15.3	1.50
Jose Calderon	52	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-5	1	15.7	15.8	-0.13	16.0	16.2	-0.13
Andrea Bargnani	75	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	-3	-3	15.4	17.0	-1.56	16.2	15.7	0.49
DeMar DeRozan	80	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	15.8	15.2	0.55	16.4	13.8	2.60
Sonny Weems	67	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.08	-14	5	-19	15.0	17.7	-2.73	16.1	16.0	0.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	72	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-2	13	15.8	17.5	-1.69	15.8	15.3	0.50
Udonis Haslem	68	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	8	-7	16.5	15.0	1.50	15.4	16.7	-1.25
Dwyane Wade	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	3	3	16.6	14.8	1.78	15.2	17.1	-1.91
Chris Bosh	41	42	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-2	13	15.3	16.7	-1.41	16.2	15.3	0.94
Carlos Arroyo	33	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-3	15	15.7	16.3	-0.64	17.4	14.8	2.64
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	56	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	5	-1	16.9	14.8	2.04	15.2	16.5	-1.27
Eddie House	26	28	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	3	3	15.4	16.4	-1.01	16.3	15.5	0.85
James Jones	51	53	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	13	-17	15.9	16.3	-0.37	14.9	16.8	-1.94
Joel Anthony	13	16	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	7	-5	13.4	16.6	-3.18	17.4	15.4	2.07
Mario Chalmers	19	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	13	-17	17.8	15.6	2.21	15.7	15.7	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, WAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%
DAL 87, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.81,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%
VAN 84, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.96,0.95,0.95,1,1	94.7%